Parties and Presidency (II)
That being said, the reverse case is not necessarily true. When the incumbent party is doing alright, the country will still hear out the other side and can be convinced that they can do better. The willingness to change who holds the reins when the incumbent party has done well seems dependent on how recently and severely the challenger party screwed up the last time they had the power. If it’s seen as particularly bad and still too recent you might get a 20 year rule like the Democrats had after Hoover, or a 12 year rule like Republicans had after Carter. When times are good and the challenger party’s last attempt wasn’t too bad, you get a closer election that is more dependent on the candidates than the historical trend (e.g. Nixon vs. Kennedy, Bush vs. Gore).