The Gambia’s Pathway to Prosperity
冈比亚通往繁荣之路
Keynote Address by IMF Deputy Managing Director Tao Zhang
国际货币基金组织副总裁张涛的主旨演讲
2019年5月21日
21 May 2019
Good Morning, honored guests, ladies and gentlemen. I would like to express my appreciation to Minister Njie for the kind introduction. It is a pleasure to be here today in Banjul to speak to such a distinguished audience at this moment of new possibilities for The Gambia.
尊敬的嘉宾，女士们、先生们，早上好。我想感谢Njie部长的热情介绍。今天，在冈比亚面临全新可能性的时刻，我很高兴来到班珠尔，向各位尊敬的嘉宾发表演讲。
You represent a true cross-section of this society – reflecting many different interests but sharing the hopes of all Gambians. These hopes found expression in the peaceful political transition of 2017. In just two days here, I am struck with admiration by the energy, determination, and patience of this nation. You have embraced your country’s challenges and opportunities, and your efforts are beginning to bear fruit. What I have sensed is a road to hope and a bright future. Or, in other words, a pathway to prosperity. This is what I would like to address in the time I have this morning.
你们是这个社会真正具有代表性的群体——代表了多种不同利益，但怀着冈比亚人共同的希望。我们在冈比亚2017年和平的政治转型中看到了这些希望。来到这里两天，我对这个国家的活力、坚毅和耐心深表钦佩。你们直面国家的挑战和机遇，付出的努力开始开花结果。我感受到了一条通往希望和光明未来之路，或者说是一条通往繁荣之路。这就是我今早演讲的主题。
Let me first set the stage by offering a quick overview of the economic setting in sub-Saharan Africa and The Gambia. As you know, the region has benefited from solid growth over the past two decades. But the past four years have proven more challenging. We have witnessed a divergence of economic fortunes – with diversified, well managed economies continuing to grow and many resource-dependent countries encountering difficulties.
首先，让我做个铺垫，快速、简要地介绍撒哈拉以南非洲和冈比亚的经济状况。大家都知道，过去二十年中，该地区从稳健的增长中获益。然而，过去的四年更具挑战性。我们见证了各国经济命运的分化——具有多样性、管理完善的经济体继续增长，而很多资源依赖型国家遭遇了困难。
While this pattern has continued recently, we are seeing regional growth regain some momentum. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that growth in sub-Saharan Africa should accelerate this year to 3.5 percent from 3 percent in 2018. We expect it to expand at close to 4 percent over the medium term. This is good news.
虽然这种发展形态近年来仍在继续，但我们发现，该地区增长势头有所增强。国际货币基金组织估计，撒哈拉以南非洲地区2019年的经济增长将由2018年的3%加速至3.5%。我们预计中期扩张接近4%。这显然是好消息。
We are very pleased to see that the Gambian economy has rebounded strongly. Growth in 2018 reached 6.6 percent and prospects for sustained growth are positive over the medium term. Inflation has dropped to just above 6 percent, and gross official reserves have increased to about 3 months of imports. This remarkable progress has been achieved through your government’s efforts to stabilize the economy with support from Gambians living abroad, the private sector, and international partners.
我们很高兴地看到冈比亚经济强劲反弹。2018年，经济增速达到6.6%，中期前景向好，预计将持续增长。通胀率降至略高于6%的水平，官方总储备增至约3个月的进口规模。这些非凡的成绩既要归功于冈比亚政府稳定经济的努力，也少不了海外冈比亚人、私营部门和国际伙伴的支持。
There also has been progress in developing infrastructure, which is crucial to ensuring sustained growth. The recently opened Senegambia Bridge, which I am going to visit later today, is a prime example of this progress. It is a symbol of The Gambia’s efforts to deepen economic ties to the rest of the region.
基础设施建设也取得一定进展，这对于确保持续增长至关重要。近日开通的塞内甘比亚大桥就是上述进展的典范，稍后我会前往参观。这是冈比亚努力深化与地区其他国家经济联系的象征。
The bridge is also a good segue to the theme of my speech: The Gambia’s pathway to prosperity. As a road, it is a pathway in the literal sense. But it is also a pathway in figurative sense, symbolizing the role of enhanced trade and connectivity in building prosperity. At the same time, domestic policy efforts will be needed to build this pathway.
这座桥也很好地引出了我演讲的主题：冈比亚通往繁荣之路。这条路，既是字面上的道路，也是比喻意义的道路，象征着强化贸易和互联互通在构建繁荣中发挥的作用。同时，建设这条道路需要国内政策的支持。
Enhanced trade is one pillar of the pathway to prosperity. Africa is now moving ahead with creating the Continental Free Trade Area, which The Gambia recently endorsed. This initiative has the potential to boost intra-African trade and growth across many dimensions. It can add jobs, foster competition, help increase investment, and spur the spread of knowledge and technology. All of which could provide significant benefits to The Gambia.
加强贸易是通往繁荣之路的一个支柱。非洲正在推进建立非洲大陆自由贸易区，冈比亚最近也批准了相关协议。该倡议有潜力在诸多领域促进非洲内部贸易和增长；它能够增加就业岗位，促进竞争，扩大投资，并推动知识和技术的传播。这些都能为冈比亚带来重大利益。
The agreement itself, however, is but one step. To fully benefit from it, the significant non-tariff bottlenecks to trade that exist across the region will also need to be tackled. These include infrastructure shortcomings, logistical costs, and other hurdles that hinder cross-border trade.
然而，协议本身只是迈出了一步。为了充分从中获益，需要解决该地区存在的严重的非关税贸易瓶颈。这包括基础设施短缺、物流成本和其他阻碍跨境贸易的因素。
If these issues are addressed, regional trade integration can help maximize the returns on important public investment, such as the Senegambia bridge, and consolidate the recent pick-up in private sector activity and lending that is integral to sustainable development in The Gambia. On this point, it is important to note that this private sector-led growth needs to be supported through responsible lending by financial institutions to Gambian businesses large and small. Vigilant supervision of banks and other credit institutions will help to ensure financial stability in the face of growing private capital inflows.
如果这些问题得到解决，地区贸易一体化将有助于实现重要公共投资的收益最大化，如塞内甘比亚大桥，并巩固近期私营部门活动和贷款的回升，这对冈比亚的可持续发展不可或缺。在这个问题上，必须意识到私营部门驱动的增长需要金融机构的支持，具体方式是负责任地向冈比亚的大型和小型企业发放贷款。对银行和其他信用机构进行审慎监管，将有助于在私人资本流入增加的背景下确保金融稳定。
Trade integration will also help frame the reforms of this country’s state-owned enterprises. In many cases, the long-term viability of those companies will depend on increasing their regional orientation.
贸易一体化也有助于制定该国的国企改革计划。在很多情况下，这些企业的长期活力取决于增强其地区导向。
Take the example of the energy sector. The stabilization of electricity output has contributed to your country’s stronger growth. So, the ongoing investment in the electricity transmission not only will link the Eastern and Northern parts of the country, it will also open doors to West Africa’s power networks by enabling cross-border energy trading, including under the flagship OMVG project uniting The Gambia, Guinea Conakry, Senegal, and Guinea Bissau with the aim of harnessing the water resources of The Gambia River Basin to produce low-cost renewable energy for the member countries.
以能源部门为例。稳定的电力产出为冈比亚更强劲的增长做出了贡献。因此，当前对输电设施正在进行的投资不仅将该国的东部和北部连接起来，而且能通过促进跨境能源交易，打开西非能源网络的大门，包括通过冈比亚河流域开发组织旗舰项目（覆盖冈比亚、几内亚科纳克里、塞内加尔和几内亚比绍），利用冈比亚河流域的水资源，为成员国生产低成本的可再生能源。
In the same vein, investment to upgrade the port of Banjul could create a new trans-shipment hub for the region. Seen in this context, the Senegambia Bridge could be just one step in the development of the Trans-Gambia corridor within Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
同样，升级班珠尔港的投资可能为该地区构建一个新的转运枢纽。在此背景下，塞内甘比亚大桥可能只是在西非国家经济共同体内开发跨冈比亚走廊的一步。
Regional integration and cooperation are particularly important for improving the structure of the economy and enhancing competitiveness. Let me offer two examples:
地区一体化和合作对改善经济结构和强化竞争尤为重要。这里我举两个例子：
First, agriculture could be an important contributor to The Gambia’s pathway to prosperity. Regional trade integration and improved infrastructure will be key to growing this important sector of the economy.
第一，农业可能成为冈比亚通往繁荣道路的重要贡献因素。促进地区贸易一体化和改进基础设施将成为这个重要经济部门发展的关键。
On Sunday, I visited Radville Farms, outside Banjul and their processing plant and transit facility near Yundum airport. It was great to see how automation and advanced irrigation techniques are helping to produce high-value and high-yielding crops, boosting exports, and providing high-value employment for many skilled workers, especially women.
周日，我参观了班珠尔城外的Radville农场及其位于Yundum机场附近的加工厂和运输设施。我很高兴地看到，自动化和先进的灌溉技术如何帮助生产高价值和高产作物，促进出口，并为很多技术工人（尤其是妇女）提供高价值的就业岗位。
In the future, weather tracking, satellite imaging and other sophisticated technological solutions (including artificial intelligence) will be needed to modernize agriculture. They will help to create a farming sector that is more environmentally attuned and resilient to climatic shocks. This is especially important for small and fragile ecosystems like The Gambia’s. Agriculture will then be better able to meet national goals of food self-sufficiency and creation of new export markets.
未来，我们需要天气跟踪、卫星成像和其他精密的技术解决方案（包括人工智能）来实现农业现代化。这些技术将有助于构建与环境更加协调、抵御气候冲击能力更强的农业部门。这对类似冈比亚的小型脆弱的生态体系尤为重要。这样，农业部门将能更好地满足国家的粮食自给自足目标，并创造新的出口市场。
Second, tourism and other services also remain essential to your future. Regarding tourism, it is great to see The Gambia attracting record numbers of visitors. New hotels, roads, and other amenities will attract more tourists and will help rebrand your country’s tourism offerings, including by branching out into eco-tourism and water sports. The ongoing expansion of transport infrastructure will facilitate tourism, including better connections to the region. These connections, importantly, will also allow goods to move around the region and help develop trade-related services, including re-exports.
第二，旅游和其他服务业也对冈比亚的未来非常重要。关于旅游业，很高兴看到冈比亚吸引了创纪录的游客。新旅馆、道路和其他设施将吸引更多的游客，帮助冈比亚重塑旅游业品牌，包括拓展生态旅游和水上运动。交通基础设施的不断扩张将促进旅游业发展，包括加强与地区的联系。重要的是，这种联系也将使商品在地区内流通，促进与贸易相关服务的发展，包括再出口业务。
Regional economic integration and cooperation will also strengthen The Gambia’s external position. Exports, private capital inflows, and remittances from Gambians working abroad are rebounding and are likely to increase further with regional integration. This will help build foreign exchange reserves and strengthen confidence in the Dalasi.
地区经济一体化和合作也将增强冈比亚的对外头寸。出口、私人资本流入和冈比亚海外务工人员侨汇正在回升，且可能随着地区一体化进一步增加。这有助于积累外汇储备，强化市场对冈比亚货币达拉西的信心。
So, there are grounds for optimism about the economic outlook. The gains we are witnessing will support your efforts to improve the quality of life for all Gambians. We are already seeing progress in the reduction of maternal and infant mortality rates, and so much more is envisaged under the National Development Plan.
因此，有理由对经济前景持乐观态度。我们目睹的成绩将为政府提高全体国民生活质量的努力提供支持。目前，降低产妇和婴儿死亡率已取得进展，同时，国家发展计划还提出了更多方面的展望。
This highlights that, beyond regional integration, there are other important areas of reform to move The Gambia along the pathway to prosperity, which are also key for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. I would like to highlight three areas:
计划强调了，除了地区一体化，冈比亚在通往繁荣的道路上还要关注其他重要的改革领域，这也是实现可持续发展目标的关键，我想强调三个领域：
First, unlocking financial support from donors is one critical challenge. This can be addressed by resolving The Gambia’s unsustainable public debt situation. In this regard, I am pleased to report that at a recent roundtable meeting in Washington, D.C., most creditors indicated support for debt relief. Your government and its advisors are following up on this development.
第一，获得捐助方的金融支持是一项关键挑战。这可以通过解决冈比亚不可持续的公共债务情况来应对。就此，我很高兴地向各位报告，近期在华盛顿特区召开的圆桌会上，多数债权人对债务减免表示支持。冈比亚政府和顾问正在跟进相关发展情况。
Second, fostering inclusive growth and addressing social needs is another priority. This means attacking poverty through programs aimed at aiding vulnerable households and creating jobs for unemployed youth. By lowering debt service costs, debt relief can also create budget room to address these needs as well as other budget priorities, including the reform of state-owned enterprises.
第二，促进包容性增长和满足社会需求是另一项重点工作。这意味着开展旨在帮助脆弱家庭和为失业青年创造就业岗位的项目来解决贫穷问题。通过降低偿债成本，债务减免也能创造预算空间，满足这些需求以及其他预算优先事项，包括国有企业改革。
Third, strengthening the rule of law and increasing accountability and transparency will also be crucial steps toward sustainable growth. The Janneh Commission revealed the extent of financial mismanagement and misappropriation during the previous regime. More focused efforts will be needed to recover stolen domestic and foreign assets.
第三，加强法治、强化问责制和提高透明度也将成为实现可持续增长的关键措施。Janneh委员会指出了上届政府执政期间资金管理不当以及资金挪用的程度。我们需要更加关注追回失窃的国内和海外资产。
The IMF joins the rest of the international community in applauding the governments’ commitment to transitional justice reform through the work of the Commission of Enquiry and the Truth, Reconciliation and Reparations Commission, and the recently established National Human Rights Commission. We also note the plans to establish an Anti-Corruption Commission.
国际货币基金组织与国际社会的其他主体共同赞赏政府致力于过渡时期司法改革的承诺，这主要通过问询委员会，真相、调解和赔偿委员会以及近期成立的国家人权委员会的工作来实现。我们也注意到建立反腐委员会的计划。
We also join the international community in support of the security sector reforms, which are essential for modernizing the state and strengthening the rule of law.
我们还与国际社会一道，支持安全部门改革，这对促进国家现代化和加强法治至关重要。
To conclude, I would like to discuss the role of the IMF.
最后，我想谈谈国际货币基金组织发挥的作用。
The Fund provided emergency support in 2017 and is continuing our engagement through a Staff-Monitored Program. In the future we may be able to move to a medium-term program with concessional financing.
国际货币基金组织在2017年提供了紧急支持，目前通过工作人员监督的规划继续参与相关工作。未来，我们可能转向提供优惠贷款的中期规划。
In addition, along with international partners and supporting countries, the IMF is strongly committed to helping The Gambia strengthen key institutions, including by providing our technical expertise and training.
此外，国际货币基金组织与国际伙伴方和支持国一起坚定致力于帮助冈比亚加强关键机构建设，包括提供我们的技术专长和培训。
It is essential that the assistance of the international community, including the IMF, is closely linked to your country’s development priorities. Please be assured that we stand ready to listen to your ideas and proposals – and to provide all the help we can.
至关重要的是，国际社会（包括国际货币基金组织）的援助要与冈比亚的发展重点紧密联系。请放心，我们将随时做好准备听取您的观点和提议，并竭尽所能提供帮助。
We look forward to working with you as you proceed along your pathway to prosperity.
我们期待与冈比亚在通往繁荣的道路上展开合作。
Thank you for your time and attention. I am happy now, together with IMF colleagues, to answer any questions you may have.
感谢您抽出时间听我的演讲。现在，我和国际货币基金组织的同事很高兴回答各位的任何问题。