双语资料:国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜· 拉加德在第八届亨利·基辛格讲座上的发言
发布时间:2018年12月27日
发布人:nanyuzi  

Age of Ingenuity: Reimagining 21st Century International Cooperation

创新的时代:重新构想21世纪的国际合作

 

Eighth Henry A. Kissinger Lecture – Library of Congress

第八届亨利·基辛格讲座——国会图书馆 


Christine Lagarde – Managing Director – International Monetary Fund

国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德

 

Washington, DC, December 4, 2018

华盛顿特区,2018年12月4日

 

Introduction

引言

 

Thank you, Mr. Haskell, for the warm welcome and thank you, Dr. Hayden, for that generous introduction. Ms. Brennan: I am very much looking forward to our conversation.

Haskell先生,感谢您的热情欢迎。Hayden博士,感谢您精彩的介绍。Brennan女士,我非常期待与您的对话。

 

It is an honor to be with all of you tonight. Although he cannot be here this evening, I know we are all profoundly grateful to Dr. Kissinger for launching this important lecture series nearly 20 years ago.

今晚,我很荣幸见到在座各位。虽然基辛格博士今晚无法到场,但我相信,各位都对他深怀感激,正是他在大约20年前开创了这一重要的系列讲座。

 

Also very much in our thoughts this evening is, of course, former President George H.W. Bush and his family. We all mourn his passing, but celebrate the arc of his life: the pilot who bravely fought in World War II; the President who helped heal divisions after the Cold War; and the statesman who believed in the power of international cooperation. I hope to honor his spirit tonight.

毫无疑问,今晚我们都心系前总统乔治·布什和他的家人。我们哀悼他的离去,也纪念他生命的轨迹:在二战中英勇战斗的飞行员,冷战后弥合分歧的总统,以及对国际合作的力量深信不疑的政治家。今晚,我想向他的精神致敬。

 

Tonight,December 4th is actually an important date for another reason. I will not tell you why just yet. You will have to wait until the end of my remarks.

今天,12月4日,事实上是一个非常重要的日子。至于原因,我先不讲,请大家等到演讲的结尾。

 

When I walked into the Great Hall this evening I immediately thought about two things. The first are my sons, one of whom is an architect. He would love this magnificent space. The second is my native country, France, as well the country I was just in two days ago for the G20 Summit, Argentina. Why?

今晚走进大厅时,我立刻想到两件事。首先想到的是我的孩子,其中一个是建筑师,他肯定会喜欢这座雄伟的建筑。而后,我想到我的故乡——法国,以及我两天前参加G20峰会的国家——阿根廷。为什么这样说?

 

When this structure was completed in 1897, the chief engineer remarked that the Palais Garnier – the Paris Opera House – was the “the prime suggestion” for the new Library of Congress. That makes sense, since the Paris Opera House was completed twenty years earlier, in 1875. Now I think the French may have borrowed a bit themselves. Perhaps from the original Teatro Colón, the Opera House in Buenos Aires, which was finished in 1857.

1897年,国会图书馆主体成型后,总工程师评价说,巴黎歌剧院是新国会图书馆的灵感来源。这不无道理,因为前者1875年建成,比这座建筑早二十多年。不过,我想法国人也借鉴不少,可能借鉴了最初的科隆大剧院——一座位于布宜诺斯艾利斯,于1857年落成的建筑。

 

What does this tell us? Well, first of all, that valuable intellectual property was of great interest across borders, even back then, at least among architects who happily borrowed from each other, learned from one another, and became inspired. Second, it reminds us that, they understood that building something lasting means linking the solid foundations of the past with a spark of imagination.

这说明了什么?首先,有价值的知识产权具有重大的跨境意义,即使在当时也是如此,至少建筑师们都乐于相互借鉴,互相学习并汲取灵感。第二,这提醒我们,他们懂得,只有将想象的火花与历史的积淀相结合,才能创造永恒。

 

That kind of creativity and long-term vision, rooted in history and informed by our successes and failures from the past, is my theme this evening. First, where have we been? How has creativity in international economic cooperation helped bring prosperity and peace to the world. And second, where can we travel together? How can creativity and informed visionary thinking help adapt the international system to our current challenges?

今晚,我就来谈谈这种创造力和远见,它根植于历史,并从过往的成功和失败中汲取养分。首先,我们经历了什么?富有创造力的国际经济合作如何促进了世界繁荣与和平?第二,未来何去何从?创造力和有洞见的思维将会怎样改造国际体系,以应对当下的挑战?

 

I.75 Years of Creativity & Vision in International Economic Cooperation

一、75年国际经济合作中的创造力和远见

 

Let me begin with the shared history of the United States and the IMF over the past 75 years.

先来回顾一下过去75年中美国和国际货币基金组织合作的历史。

 

In the first half of the 20th century, the dominant economic and military powers used force to assert their self-interests at enormous cost in terms of human life and physical destruction. The tragic results compelled nations to find a better way. In 1944, they found it.

20世纪上半叶,全球经济和军事强国利用武力保护自身利益,无数生灵荼毒,家园化为废墟。这样的悲剧式结果促使各国寻找更有效的方式,直到1944年。

 

The US emerged as the major global power and did something unprecedented. Informed by the devastating ultimate outcome of the Versailles Treaty at the end of World War I, the US decided to use its power in the service of cooperation. It was an experiment that would shape our modern world. In his inaugural lecture in 2001, Dr. Kissinger called the innovations of the postwar period, “a great burst of creativity that brought security to the world.”

美国崛起为全球主要强国,但做出了史无前例的决定。美国吸取了一战后凡尔赛条约的教训,为避免悲剧后果重演,决定以己之力促进国际合作,这次试验注定将重塑现代世界。在2001年的就职演讲中,基辛格这样评价战后时期的创新“创造力的迸发让世界变得更加安全”。

 

How did the US do it? With generosity, with consideration for its self-interest, and with a little help from some friends. Let us look at some of the turning points over the last 75 years.

美国是怎样成功的?一方面慷慨援助其他国家,一方面考虑自身的利益,再加上来自一些盟友的帮助。我们不妨看看过去75年的一些转折点。

 

Think first of the creation of the Bretton Woods system itself.

首先,让我们想一想布雷顿森林体系本身的创建过程。

 

The principal architects, John Maynard Keynes of the UK and Harry Dexter White of the US, were deeply influenced by the period between the great wars. They witnessed a moment in history when flawed domestic policies poisoned international relationships, which themselves were built on troubled foundations.

布雷顿森林体系的主要设计师,英国人约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯和美国人亨利·迪克特·怀特深受两次世界大战期间的影响。在他们那个时代,各国国内政策失误导致原本根基不牢的国际关系不断恶化。

 

The result was protectionism and competitive currency devaluations. Imploding world trade deepened the Great Depression, and caused massive economic, financial, and social upheaval. Ultimately, these pressures gave rise to nationalist and populist movements and, eventually, catastrophe.

其结果就是保护主义和竞争性货币贬值。国际贸易的内部崩塌使大萧条不断深化,引发了大规模的经济、金融和社会动荡。这些压力催生了民族主义和民粹主义运动,最终酿成了灾难。

 

Emerging from the Second World War, the US and some 40 other countries gathered in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire and decided to create the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. They charged the Fund with three critical missions: promoting international monetary cooperation, supporting the expansion of trade and economic growth, and discouraging policies that would harm prosperity.

随着二战阴霾散去,美国及其他40多个国家汇聚新罕布什尔的布雷顿森林,并决定创建国际货币基金组织和世界银行。基金组织被赋予三大关键使命,促进全球货币合作,支持贸易扩大和经济增长,消除有损全球繁荣的政策。

 

It was revolutionary. It was visionary... And it worked.

这一富有革命性和远见的尝试,获得了成功。

 

From the very beginning, the IMF helped countries address major new challenges through collaboration. Complementing the Marshall Plan, we helped Europe rebuild from the rubble of war. Our loans gave countries breathing space to stabilize their economies in difficult times and implement policies to promote growth. It is a mission that we continue to this day – as you may have seen recently in countries as diverse as Argentina, Egypt, and Ukraine.

创立伊始,国际货币基金组织就通过合作,帮助各国应对新的挑战。国际货币基金组织帮助欧洲从战争的废墟中重建,成为马歇尔计划的重要补充。我们的贷款为各国提供了喘息空间,以在困难时期稳定国内经济,并实施促进增长的政策。这一使命延续至今,比如近年来,国际货币基金组织向阿根廷、埃及和乌克兰等国提供贷款。

 

The genius of this collaborative system was that it was designed to adapt and change.

这一合作体系设计的精妙之处在于,其能够不断适应和改变。

 

In the early 1970s that change arrived. In his landmark speech, “The Challenge of Peace,” President Nixon suspended the US dollar’s convertibility into gold. The decision shocked the world and forced a year-long negotiation that led to the modern floating exchange rate structure.

20世纪70年代初,变革不期而遇。尼克松总统在其里程碑式的演讲“和平的挑战”中宣布,暂停美元与黄金的兑换。这一决定震惊了世界。各国进行了长达一年的谈判,构建了现代化的浮动汇率体制。

 

At the time, some thought that this particular change would mean the end of the IMF. But all our members, including the US, knew that the goals of stability and prosperity extended well beyond fixed exchange rates. They recognized the benefits of a global financial firefighter that could help countries in times of need.

当时,有人认为国际货币基金组织会因此寿终正寝。但包括美国在内的成员国明白,实现稳定和繁荣的目标远远超出固定汇率制度。他们认识到基金组织作为全球金融体系“消防员”的益处,即能在国家面临困难时提供援助。

 

They built on what worked, changed what did not, and adapted.

他们借鉴历史经验,推陈出新。

 

In response to the oil crisis of 1973, the IMF created new tools to help countries facing an energy emergency in line with the Fund’s role to help smooth shocks and prevent harmful spillovers. As a debt crisis hit Latin America in the 1980s, the IMF, with creative ideas and support from the US, stepped in to calm the waters. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, we took on a new challenge: helping nations in the former Soviet bloc transform themselves from centrally planned to free market economies. In the 1990s, the Fund assisted countries in overcoming, first, the Mexican peso crisis, and then the Asian financial crisis.

为应对1973年的石油危机,根据其帮助各国应对冲击和防范不利溢出效应的职责,国际货币基金组织推出了新的工具,帮助各国应对能源危机。20世纪80年代,拉丁美洲爆发债务危机,在美国支持下,国际货币基金组织介入并以创造性的措施平息了危机。柏林墙倒塌后,我们又面临新的挑战,如何帮助前苏联国家实现从中央计划经济到自由市场经济的转型。20世纪90年代,基金组织帮助相关国家度过了墨西哥比索危机和亚洲金融危机。

 

Throughout all of these challenges we continued to help countries around the world with their economic fundamentals – their fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies – and with steps to build stronger economic institutions. These efforts enabled better policies that opened markets, boosted trade, created jobs, and unleashed economic potential.

在此期间,基金组织继续帮助各国改善经济基本面,改善其财政、货币和汇率政策,以及采取措施加强经济机构建设。上述工作使政策得以改善,并促进了市场开放和贸易增长,创造了更多的就业岗位,激发了各国经济活力。

 

Then came 2008 and the global financial crisis. The ensuing great recession reminded us that international cooperation is essential, not optional. As the French Finance Minister, I was part of that international response. G20 nations and the Federal Reserve took extraordinary steps to save the system. The IMF deployed its own firepower, committing over $500 billion to help secure the global economy. In the decade since, we supported economic programs in over 90 countries and adapted our lending instruments, including zero-interest loans to help low-income countries.

而后,2008年爆发了全球金融危机。危机后的大衰退提醒我们,国际合作是不可或缺的。作为法国财政部长,我也参与到国际行动之中。二十国集团国家和美联储采取了超常规措施救助金融体系。国际货币基金组织也积极调配资源,出资5000多亿美元帮助稳定全球经济。随后的十年中,国际货币基金组织为90多个国家的经济规划提供支持,同时调整其贷款工具,包括向低收入国家发放零利率贷款。

 

But the global economy needed more than liquidity and stimulus. We worked with our membership to craft stronger financial sector regulations so that, together, we could prevent the next crisis.

然而,全球经济需要的不只是流动性和刺激政策。为此,国际货币基金组织与成员国合作,制定更严格的金融监管措施,以避免危机的再次发生。

 

We learned from the past, got creative, and changed for the better.

我们借鉴历史,发挥创造力,不断完善国际金融体系。

 

None of this would have been possible without the United States. This country challenged the international economic order when it needed challenging. It forged compromise when compromise was necessary. Why?

其中,美国扮演了不可或缺的角色,其在必要情况下挑战旧的国际经济秩序,同时做出必要的妥协。为什么?

 

Because a stronger and more stable world paid dividends for the US. It enabled the US to enjoy some of the longest runs of sustained economic growth the modern world has ever known. Since that meeting at Bretton Woods nearly 75 years ago, real US GDP increased by a factor of eight. The average American’s real income has quadrupled. This success did not come at the expense of other nations. On the contrary. This country’s collaborative leadership paved the way not only for decades of opportunity here in America, but also for growth that spread across the world.

因为更加强大和稳定的世界符合美国的利益。美国因此享有了现代史上最长的几个持续增长期。自布雷顿森林体系会议召开的75年以来,美国实际GDP产出增长八倍,实际平均工资水平翻了两番 。然而,美国的成功并未损害其他国家的利益。相反,其合作精神和领导力不仅促进了本国几十年的经济发展,也为世界各国的经济增长奠定了坚实基础。

 

Today, the landscape has shifted again. Part of this change is driven by geopolitics and the shift in some economic power from west to east. Part of it by the rise of non-state actors, including multi-national companies. And part of it is driven by technology and the rapid acceleration of everything in our lives. As I am sure the curators of this library are well aware, 90 percent of the world’s data was created just over the last two years. As a daughter of two classics professors, I know my parents would find this fact very hard to believe. But the truth is all things – from information, to money, to disease – travel more quickly in our modern world.

今天,世界格局再次改变,一是地缘政治因素及世界经济实力逐渐从西方向东方转移,二是非国家主体,包括跨国企业的崛起。三是科技进步和生活各领域节奏的加快。我相信馆长一定知道,近两年全球生成的数据占到了有史以来数据总量的90%。我的父母作为古典主义的教授,会很难相信这个事实。但实际上,从信息到资金到疾病,现代世界中一切事物的传播都显著变快。

 

These transformations can bring enormous opportunities, but also unprecedented risks. Why?

这些转变既带来重大机遇,也带来前所未有的挑战。为什么?

 

Because more than ever before, what happens in one nation can impact all nations. Think about it: From weapons of mass destruction, to cyber-security, to the interconnected financial system, many of our current challenges do not recognize borders. So, when support for international cooperation falters, we must remember the lesson the United States and her allies taught the world over the last 75 years: Solidarity is self-interest.

因为个别国家的问题将比以往任何时候更深远地影响其他所有国家。不妨思考,从大规模杀伤性武器到网络安全及国际金融体系,我们当今面临的很多挑战都超越了国界。所以,当国际合作失去支持,我们应回想美国及其盟友在过去75年中提供的经验,团结符合自身利益。

 

That principle endures in our changing world.

在瞬息万变的世界中,这一原则仍然适用。

 

Our challenge now is to adapt and reform once more.

我们面临的挑战是再次适应和实施改革。

 

II. The Next Chapter: How to Reimagine International Cooperation

二、下一个篇章:如何重新构想国际合作

 

I believe that this next year, 2019, can be another turning point in our journey – a moment when the world delivers a new burst of creativity in solving our shared challenges.

我相信2019年会成为历史的另一个转折点——各国再次迸发出新的创造力,解决共同面临的挑战。

 

We can draw inspiration from our surroundings. Inscribed on the walls above us are the words of the poet Edward Young, “They build too low, those who build beneath the stars.”

我们可以从身边吸取灵感。我们上方的墙上镌刻着诗人爱德华·扬的作品,“筑楼于星辰之下,并不够高”。

 

Imagine what the world might look like if we fail to build and adapt: We could live in an Age of Anger:

不妨设想,若不构建和适应新的时代,世界会怎样:我们将生活在一个愤怒的时代:

 

By 2040, inequality could surpass the levels of the Gilded Age. Strong tech monopolies and weak governments with ineffective domestic policies could make it impossible for start-ups and entrepreneurs to succeed. Health breakthroughs could allow the richest to live past 120, while millions of others suffer from extreme poverty and disease. Social media would bombard the “left-behind” population, underscoring the disparity between their reality and the possibility of a better life. The aspiration gap fuels resentment and anger. Trust between nations breaks down. The world would be more interconnected digitally, but less connected in every other way. International cooperation for mutual benefit would be a concept studied in libraries like this one, but rarely practiced on the world stage, due to the supremacy of national interests and a singular focus on domestic policies. To borrow from Dr. Kissinger in his book World Order, we might be, “facing a period in which forces beyond the restraints of any order determine the future.”

到2040年,不平等程度将超越镀金时代。强大的科技垄断企业和实施无效国内政策的脆弱政府将扼杀初创企业和创业群体。随着医疗技术进步,最富有群体的寿命将超过120岁,而数百万普通人将在极端贫穷和疾病中挣扎。社交媒体将无时无刻轰炸这个“被遗忘的群体”,强调其美好生活的理想与当下现状的鸿沟。现实的差距导致不满和愤怒日益累积,国家之间的信任土崩瓦解。全球的数字交往可能日益紧密,但其他方面的交往却逐步减弱。鉴于国家利益至上以及仅关注国内政策的做法,互利共赢的国际合作成为诸如国会图书馆等场所探讨的概念,而非国际社会付诸的实践。借用基辛格博士《世界秩序》一书中的表述,“我们可能面临一个阶段,不受任何秩序束缚的力量主宰我们的未来”。

 

That is a very dystopian scenario, isn’t it? But I do not believe it is our destiny. Neither does Dr. Kissinger, by the way. We have overcome existential threats before and can do so again. Think of the world if we make 2019 the start of a different kind of “AI” – an Age of Ingenuity. This would be a future fueled by creativity and cooperation:

多么反乌托邦的情景啊!但我不相信这种命运。当然,基辛格博士也不相信。我们曾经化解现实的威胁,也将克服当下的难题。不妨设想,我们将在2019年开启一种新的“AI”——创新的时代,一个由创造力和合作驱动的时代:

 

By 2040, we would see flourishing economies predominantly running on renewable energy. Women would be fully empowered in the workforce, proving to be an economic and social game-changer. New pension systems and health care portability would reflect the changing nature of work in the digital economy. Corporations would embrace social responsibility as part of their business models. Technological wizardry could save lives and create millions of jobs. We would see an end to mass migration. Trade would expand across the world and peaceful co-existence between nations would prevail.

到2040年,繁荣的经济将主要依靠可再生能源,女性在工作领域被充分赋权,成为经济和社会发展的破局者,新的养老体系和可转移医疗保险将反映出数字经济给工作本质带来的改变。企业将社会责任纳入商业模式之中,日新月异的科技将拯救数百万生命。大规模人员迁移将会终结,全球贸易不断拓展,各国在和平中友好共存。

 

Am I being too optimistic? I have to be optimistic. I am thinking of the world my grandchildren will inherit. But it does present us with a fundamental choice: stand still and watch discord and discontent bubble over into conflict; or move forward, reimagine the way nations work together, and build prosperity and peace.

我是否过于乐观?我不得不保持乐观,因为我设想的是子孙们将要继承的未来。但我们确实面临一个最根本的选择:是袖手旁观、容忍分歧和不满激化为冲突,还是向前迈进,重新构想各国如何共建繁荣与和平。

 

What does this mean in practice? It means countries working together to put people at the center of all of our efforts – focusing on real results that improve lives. It also means governments and institutions being more transparent and accountable – which includes listening to more diverse voices. It means ensuring that economic benefits of globalization are shared by the many, not just the few.

如何将其转化为行动?首先,各国的工作应当以人为中心,着眼于改善民众福祉;其次,强化政府和机构的透明度和责任意识,包括倾听更多不同的声音;最后, 确保全球化惠及所有人,而非少数群体。

 

I have called this the “new multilateralism.” You might call it common sense.

我将其称为“新多边主义”,你也可以称之为常识。

 

Let me be very clear here: Good international cooperation cannot substitute for good domestic policy. Of course, individual countries have a responsibility for the well-being of their citizens. In fact, strong domestic policies can form the foundation for effective international cooperation. And in our modern world, there are some issues that can only be addressed through international cooperation.

在这方面,我想非常明确地表示:良好的国际合作不能取代良好的国内政策。当然,各国对本国公民的福祉负有责任。事实上,强有力的国内政策能够构成有效国际合作的基础。在现代世界中,有一些问题只能通过国际合作来解决。

 

I want to discuss four such issues in that respect, tonight. To be successful in each, we will need the creativity and vision of the IMF’s 189-member countries, including our founding member – the United States.

今晚我想谈谈这方面的四个问题。为了成功应对每个问题,我们需要国际货币基金组织189个成员国的创造能力和远见卓识,其中包括我们的创始成员国——美国。

 

a. Keys to the Age of Ingenuity

a. 创新时代的关键

 

First, trade. I have been saying for some time now that we need to “fix the system.” More recently I have been urging countries to “de-escalate” trade tensions. It was encouraging to see progress on this front at the G20 over the weekend. Now we must continue the de-escalation, while at the same time improving the trading system for the future. This would include eliminating distortionary subsidies, whichever form and color they take. It would also mean protecting intellectual property rights without stifling innovation and getting rid of rents. New trade agreements could unleash the potential of e-commerce and trade in services. I should stress that better macroeconomic policies would reduce the external imbalances – including trade surpluses and deficits – that have been the backdrop for rising trade tensions. All of this is critical because trade lifts productivity and accelerates innovation.

首先,贸易。过去一段时间,我一直在说“修复体系”。最近,我敦促各国避免贸易紧张局势升级。周末的二十国集团会议在这方面取得进展,令人鼓舞。现在我们必须继续缓解贸易矛盾,同时从未来着眼改善贸易体系。 这包括取消所有形式的扭曲性补贴。另外,这也意味着在不扼杀创新的情况下保护知识产权并消除寻租。 新的贸易协议能够释放电子商务和服务贸易的潜力。我想强调,更好的宏观经济政策将减少外部不均衡(包括贸易顺差和逆差),这一直是贸易紧张局势加剧的背景。这些都非常重要,因为贸易能够提高生产率和加快创新。

 

My second issue where we need more cooperation: international taxation. Companies now have a world-wide presence, but governments have not figured out a world-wide answer on tax. Right now, too many tax dollars are left on the table thanks to tax optimization and the bad kind of creativity. So countries need to work closely together to collect what is owed and avoid a tax race to the bottom. They can close the loopholes that lead to what is called base erosion and profit shifting. The IMF is working with our partners, so our members can share best practices and devise regulations for a digital economy in which many companies have no single established base of operations. Why the need for this revenue? Because all countries should be investing in their future. Public and private funding working together can strengthen infrastructure, improve education, and prepare all of us to adjust to the technological transformation on our doorstep.

需要加强合作的第二个问题是:国际征税。企业目前在全球范围开展业务,但对于征税问题,政府还没有找到全球性解决办法。现在,税收优化和不良创新导致大量税款流失。所以,各国需要紧密合作,将应缴税款征收上来,避免竞相降低税率。它们能够填补漏洞,防止税基侵蚀和利润转移。国际货币基金组织正在与合作伙伴一道努力,使我们的成员能够分享最佳做法,制定监管法规,适应数字经济的需要(在数字经济中,许多企业没有单一的固定业务基地)。为什么需要这些税收收入?因为所有国家都应投资于它们的未来。公共和私人融资联合起来,将能够加强基础设施,改善教育,让所有人做好准备,为即将到来的技术变革做出调整。

 

My third issue: our climate. From the recent major hurricanes in the Caribbean to the wildfires in California, the dangerous effects of climate change are becoming more tangible by the day. A new US government study shows that the economic impact from climate change could significantly reduce America’s GDP in the coming decades. The collaborative agreement reached in Paris in 2015 is the best toolbox we have to start fixing this planetary challenge and move towards a zero-carbon economy. It also reflects the ideas that I have highlighted tonight – creativity, visionary thinking, and a global commitment to the common good that serves self-interest. This is a matter of survival for our children and grandchildren.

第三个问题:我们的气候。从最近的加勒比严重飓风,到加利福尼亚的山火,气候变化带来的危险效应日益明显。美国政府的一项新研究指出,今后几十年,气候变化带来的经济影响可能严重降低美国的GDP。2015年在巴黎达成的合作协议是我们能够利用的最佳手段,使我们能够着手应对地球面临的这一挑战,实现零碳经济。巴黎协议也体现了我今晚强调的内容——创造性,有洞见的思维,以及在全球范围内致力于实现符合自身利益的共同福祉。这个问题关系到我们子孙后代的生存。

 

Now each of these issues – trade, tax, climate – is worthy of its own Kissinger Lecture. But there is one issue that I believe is the bedrock for progress nearly everywhere else. That is why the fourth and final area I want to discuss is good governance, free from the shackles of corruption. The simple fact is that without confidence in our institutions, none of the change we seek will be possible. So, let me focus on this briefly.

这其中的每一个问题——贸易,税收,气候——都值得举办一次单独的基辛格讲座。但我认为,有一个问题是几乎所有其他问题取得进展的根基。所以,我想谈的第四个也是最后一个问题是,摆脱腐败枷锁的良好治理。一个简单的事实是,没有对制度的信任,我们试图实现的任何变革都是不可能的。所以,我简要地着重谈谈这个问题:

 

b. Fighting Corruption, Promoting Good Governance

b. 打击腐败,促进良好治理

 

Why is corruption so corrosive? Because when people start believing the economy no longer works for them, they start disconnecting from society. Corruption saps economic vitality and siphons off desperately needed resources. The money diverted from education or health care perpetuates inequality and limits the possibility of a better life. T he annual cost of bribery alone is over 1.5 trillion dollars – roughly two percent of global GDP. Millennials feel the problem acutely. A recent survey of global youth revealed that young people identify corruption – not jobs, not lack of education – as the most pressing concern in their own countries. There is wisdom in this insight – because corruption is a root cause of many of the economic injustices young men and women feel every day.

为什么腐败具有如此强的腐蚀性?这是因为,当人们开始认为经济不再有利于他们,他们就会开始脱离社会。腐败会削弱经济活力,抽走急需的资源。从教育和医疗中转移走的资金导致不平等现象变得根深蒂固,限制了生活改善的可能性。仅贿赂成本每年就超过1.5万亿美元,约相当于全球GDP的2%。千禧一代对这个问题的感受尤其强烈。最近对全球年轻人开展的一项调查发现,年轻人认为腐败——而非就业或教育不足——是本国面临的最紧迫问题。这一看法有其道理——因为腐败是年轻人每天感受到的众多经济不公正现象的根源所在。

 

That is why the IMF, with the support of all our membership, is scrutinizing anew the impact of corruption on a country’s macroeconomic health. So far, we have worked with over 110 countries on improving their efforts to tackle money laundering and terrorist financing.

这就是为什么国际货币基金组织在所有成员国的支持下,正在重新审视腐败对一国宏观经济健康状况的影响。到目前为止,我们已经与110多个国家共同努力,改善其打击洗钱和恐怖主义融资工作。

 

And this is only a small part of the wider work needed to promote good governance. Investing in institutions is indispensable, as is persistence to verify that institutions actually deliver.

这只是促进良好治理所需更广泛工作的很小一部分。制度的投资不可或缺,同样需要的是不断证实制度的改善确实能够带来成效。

 

Here is the fundamental point: Corruption is a cancer that does not recognize borders.

最根本的一点:腐败是一种跨越国家边界的癌症。

 

Think of how fintech is changing the economic game. New innovations – including cryptocurrency – can be used by cyber-criminals to funnel illicit financial flows and fund illegal activities worldwide. This is not one nation’s problem or within one nation’s power to resolve. It can only be fixed through cross-border collaboration.

想一想金融科技如何在改变经济活动?新的创造(包括加密货币)可以被网络罪犯用来转移非法资金以及为全球非法活动供资。这不是一个国家的问题,也不是一个国家有能力解决的问题,只能通过跨境合作来纠正。

 

But it is something fixable. The same innovations that create cross-border challenges can also be used to help us fight back. Through biometrics, blockchain, and more we can find creative ways to build a better, safer system for the long-term. Governments can and must work with the world’s best engineers to build stronger cyber security systems that protect people’s bank accounts and their well-being. This is a common good we must choose to support.

但这是可以解决的问题。造成跨境挑战的相同创新,也可以帮助我们回击这些不法行为。通过生物统计和区块链等技术,我们可以找到创造性途径,建立长期内更完善、更安全的体系。政府能够也必须与世界最好的工程师一道努力,建立更强健的网格安全系统,保护人们的银行账户及其利益。这是我们必须支持的共同利益。

 

If we take on the challenge of corruption, it can be a model for cooperation in each of the areas I have raised tonight. It can be the sign that “the brotherhood of man,” as Keynes called it, is ready once again to meet the call of history. Except this time, women will play a starring role!

如果我们能够应对腐败带来的挑战,那么这将能成为我今晚谈到的每个领域的合作模式。这表示,凯恩斯所说的“人类手足之情”将迎接历史的召唤。只是这次女性将发挥主导作用!

 

This is how we start restoring trust, the most precious and in-demand commodity in our society. This is how we begin to adapt once more and reimagine international cooperation.

这就是我们如何着手恢复信任——我们社会的最宝贵和最亟需的财富。这就是我们如何开始再次调整和重塑国际合作。

 

This is how by working together, we can create the Age of Ingenuity.

这就是我们如何通过共同努力建立一个创新的时代。

 

Conclusion

结语

 

Now, before I conclude, there is one thing left to do. I began my remarks by mentioning that December 4th was an important date. Has anyone guessed the significance?

在结束之前,我还有一点要说。我一开始提到了12月4日是一个重要的日子。有没有人猜到为什么?

 

On December 4th 1918, one hundred years ago to the day, President Woodrow Wilson set sail for France to help negotiate what he hoped would be a lasting peace. He became the first sitting US President to travel to Europe. In some ways, we can trace the origins of creativity and visionary thinking in US foreign policy to this date.

1918年12月4日,一百年前的今天,伍德罗·威尔逊总统启航赴法国,谈判他所希望实现的持久和平。他成为第一位访问欧洲的现任总统。在某种意义上,我们可以将美国外交政策的创造性和远见卓识追溯到那个时候。

 

It is a humbling reminder that our plans do not always work out as intended. But it is also a signal that we must try and try again to overcome.

它提醒我们,我们的计划并不总能按预想情况实施。但它也表明,我们必须再接再厉,克服前进路上的障碍。

 

We must build on what worked, change what does not, and continually evolve, improve, and imagine a better future for all people. It was the vision that inspired the leaders of this country. It must be the mission that will guide all of us in the days ahead.

我们必须以史为鉴、破除藩篱,不断演进、改善,塑造所有人的更美好未来。这是激发美国领导人的愿景。它必须作为今后引导所有各方前行的使命。

 

Thank you.

谢谢各位。