疫苗获批带来经济曙光
Britain has become the first country to approve the mass rollout of a coronavirus vaccine that has passed large-scale clinical trials. This is a big moment. The pandemic is by no means over, but the launch of mass vaccinations marks the beginning of the end. The final lifting of restrictions placed on millions to halt the pandemic’s spread may now be in sight.
英国已成为首个批准一款经过大规模临床试验的新型冠状病毒疫苗的国家。这是一个重大时刻。新冠疫情还远远没有结束，但大规模疫苗接种的启动标志着结束阶段的开始。现在，我们看到了针对不计其数的人们的抗疫限制最终解除的希望。
It also opens up the possibility of rapid economic growth. High savings rates and a return of economic confidence could combine with months of pent-up economic demand to lead to a new edition of the Roaring Twenties that followed the end of the first world war and the conquering of the Spanish flu. If coronavirus can be banished for good, millions may soon rush out to indulge themselves in all the ways in which they have recently been denied.
这也开启了经济快速增长的可能性。高储蓄率和经济信心恢复，结合被压抑数月的经济需求，有望带来新版“咆哮的20年代”（Roaring Twenties），就像第一次世界大战结束后、以及战胜西班牙流感之后的上世纪20年代。如果新冠病毒被永久扑灭，人们可能很快就会以近期被阻止的各种方式尽情享受。
Such optimism could still turn out to be misplaced. Distribution of the vaccine, if it works, will not be smooth. Governments need to persuade millions of healthy, and often low-risk, people to accept a dose. The accelerated approval process means that its effects might not be fully understood; its efficacy, too, is uncertain. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine given emergency approval in the UK has not yet been approved by the US and the EU. A mass vaccination programme of this scale and speed has no precedent.
这种乐观仍有可能被证明是不恰当的。即使疫苗管用，其分发也不会一帆风顺。各国政府需要说服数量众多的往往面临低风险的健康者接种疫苗。加快的批准过程意味着我们可能尚未完全理解其影响；其功效也不确定。在英国获得紧急使用批准的辉瑞（Pfizer）/BioNTech疫苗，尚未得到美国和欧盟的批准。这种规模和速度的大规模疫苗接种计划尚无先例。
If the public health emergency can be brought under control, however, the overall economic recovery could be robust. Evidence from China and Australia, where the bounce back has outpaced expectations, suggests that once restrictions are relaxed and economic activity can resume then consumers start spending. Shoppers see the virus as transitory and confidence rebounds strongly; unlike in previous recessions, the housing market has remained stable, financial markets have already recovered, and parts of manufacturing have been relatively unscathed. The OECD, the rich country think-tank, has revised up its most recent forecasts for economic growth.
然而，如果这起突发公共卫生事件得到控制，整体经济复苏将是强劲的。来自中国和澳大利亚（这两个国家的反弹都超出预期）的证据似乎表明，一旦放松限制，使经济活动得以恢复，那么消费者就会开始消费。购物者认为新冠病毒是暂时的，信心强劲反弹。与以往的经济衰退不同，疫情期间房地产市场保持稳定，金融市场已经复苏，制造业的某些部分相对未受影响。在最新预测中，富国智库——经合组织（OECD）上调了其对经济增长的预测。
The economy that emerges out of the pandemic will look rather different. Not only have millions of businesses learnt how to manage the bulk of their staff working from home and invested in the equipment necessary but retail has moved rapidly online and digital laggards have been forced to embrace the opportunities offered by new technologies. Numerous other companies, by contrast, have closed their doors for good and many that remain now have to cope with much higher debt burdens – meaning slower hiring and less investment.
摆脱疫情之后的经济看起来将大不相同。数以百万计的企业不仅学会了在大部分员工在家工作的情况下如何管理，并投资于必要的设备，而且零售业迅速转移到网上，数字化方面的落后者被迫拥抱新技术带来的机遇。与此形成反差的是，其他许多公司永久停业，而许多生存下来的公司不得不应付高得多的债务负担，这意味着放缓招聘的步伐，投资减少。
As the International Labour Organization warned on Wednesday, the pandemic has exacerbated inequality. Workers with stable, well-paid jobs have accumulated substantial savings; property prices have risen across Europe, partly as the wealthy seek more attractive locations for remote working. Others have suffered as their jobs have disappeared or hours have been cut back; a significant minority have been pushed into extreme financial hardship, having to borrow money to buy essentials.
正如国际劳工组织（ILO）周三警告的，新冠疫情加剧了不平等现象。从事稳定、高薪工作的人积累了可观的积蓄；欧洲各国的房价都有所上涨，部分原因是富人寻求更具吸引力的远程工作地点。其他人则因他们的工作岗位消失或工作时间减少而受苦；数量可观的少数人陷入极端财务困境，不得不借钱购买必需品。
After months of isolation and privation, the public will deserve an opportunity to let their hair down if the vaccination effort succeeds. In some quarters, the spring and summer of 2021 might then be remembered as much for a consumption and entertainment boom as 2020 was for social distancing. Memories of the crisis and the early sense of solidarity will, inevitably, fade. If they are to create a sustainable recovery worthy of the name, however, governments should remain vigilant – and keep in mind how the last Roaring Twenties came to an end.
经过数月的隔离和苦日子，公众值得有一个尽情享受的机会——如果疫苗接种计划取得成功的话。在某些地方，2021年春季和夏季可能被铭记为消费和娱乐业繁荣时期，就像2020年被铭记为保持社交距离的时期一样。对危机的记忆和早期的团结感将不可避免地淡化。然而，要促成一场名副其实的可持续复苏，各国政府应保持警惕，牢记上一个“咆哮的20年代”是如何收场的。
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