Global GDP Could Return to Pre-pandemic Levels as Early as 2021, Says OECD
据经合组织，全球GDP最早可于2021年恢复到疫前水平
The OECD has revealed that global GDP could recover to pre-pandemic levels by as early as 2021. However, the report warns that resilient and sustainable growth will depend on a number of factors. This includes business confidence, how well we observe health measures and the likelihood of new outbreaks.
经合组织表示，全球GDP最早可能于2021年恢复到疫情前的水平。但是，报告警告说，有韧性的、可持续的增长将取决于多种因素。包括人们对商业信心、对防疫措施的遵守程度以及新一轮爆发的可能性。
The OECD released its interim Economic Outlook report, providing us with an updated look at the coronavirus pandemic’s effect on the world economy. Striking a slightly more positive tone than the previous edition published in June, the report finds that “economic output recovered swiftly following the easing of measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and the initial re-opening of businesses.” However, it also notes that the “pace of recovery has lost momentum over the summer,” adding that restoring confidence will be key to successful economic recovery.
经合组织发布了《经济展望中期报告》，向我们提供了关于新冠肺炎对世界经济影响的最新信息。与6月份发布的上一版相比，该报告的基调稍显乐观，发现“在放松防疫措施、业务初步重新开放之后，经济产出迅速恢复。”但是，报告还指出，“复苏的步伐在夏季已失去动力”，并补充说，恢复信心将是成功实现经济复苏的关键。
The OECD expects all G20 countries except China to fall into recession this year, with a swift but fragile recovery projected for 2021. The OECD expects global GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level by Q3 2021, however, economic output is expected to remain below late-2019 levels in many countries, not to mention the levels projected before the pandemic hit. The report also notes that uncertainty remains high and that the strength of the recovery depends on numerous variables.
经合组织预计，除中国外，所有G20国家都将在今年陷入经济衰退，2021年将实现复苏——这种复苏虽然速度较快，但仍十分脆弱。经合组织预计，到2021年第三季度，全球GDP将回到大流行前水平。预计许多国家的经济产出将保持在2019年末的水平以下，绝对难以达到大流行之前的预测数据。该报告还指出，不确定性仍然很高，复苏的力量取决于众多变量。
“Prospects for an inclusive, resilient and sustainable economic growth will depend on a range of factors,” the report finds. These include “the likelihood of new outbreaks of the virus, how well individuals observe health measures and restrictions, consumer and business confidence, and the extent to which government support to maintain jobs and help businesses succeeds in boosting demand.” All things considered, the OECD projects global GDP to fall by 4.5 percent this year before growing 5 percent in 2021.
报告发现：“实现包容、有韧性的、可持续的经济增长的前景取决于一系列因素。”其中包括“新一轮病毒爆发的可能性、个人对健康措施和限制的遵守程度、消费者和企业的信心以及政府在维持工作和帮助企业复苏方面的支持程度等。”综合考虑，经合组织预计今年全球GDP将下降4.5%，但在2021年会实现5%的增长。
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