双语资料:G20峰会是中美贸易摩擦的局点还是赛点?
发布时间:2019年12月16日
发布人:nanyuzi  

G20峰会是中美贸易摩擦的局点还是赛点?

Is the G20 Summit a Game Point or the Match Point for the China-U.S. Trade Dispute?

 

驻马来西亚大使白天在马来西亚主流媒体发表署名文章

Chinese Ambassador H.E. Bai Tian Publishes the Signed Article on Malaysian Mainstream media

 

马来西亚,201978

Malaysia 8 July 2019

 

在出席一场开斋节活动时,一位媒体朋友问我:“G20峰会将是中美贸易战的局点还是赛点?”我笑着回答:“再等等看”。  

Earlier at a Hari Raya event, I was asked by friend from media: Is the G20 summit a game point of the China-U.S. trade dispute, or the match point of it? I replied with a smile, “Let’s wait and see.”

 

上周,中国国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普在大阪G20峰会期间会晤。两国元首一致同意推进以协调、合作、稳定为基调的中美关系,同意在平等和相互尊重的基础上重启经贸磋商。 

Last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with U.S. President Donald Trump during the G20 Summit in Osaka. The two leaders agreed to promote the China-U.S. relations based on coordination, cooperation and stability, and to resume trade talks on the basis of equality and mutual respect.

 

特朗普总统表示,美方将不再对中国出口产品加征新关税,愿意和中国加强合作,通过协商妥善解决两国贸易平衡,为两国企业提供公正待遇。消息传出,让高度关注中美贸易摩擦的人们长长吁了一口气,似乎看到了一线曙光。 

President Trump also promised that the U.S. would not impose new tariffs on Chinese imports, and that the U.S. is willing to cooperate with China to properly settle the trade balance problem between the two countries through consultations, and provide fair treatments for enterprises from both countries. Long sighs of relief could be heard from all the people who have been paying close attention to the China-U.S. trade disputes, as this piece of news may be a ray of hope.

 

去年322日,美国打响中美贸易摩擦第一枪,特朗普签署总统备忘录,宣称依据“301调查”结果,将对从中国进口商品大规模征收关税,并限制中国企业对美投资并购。同年9月,正值中国传统中秋佳节,美国宣布对中方2000亿美元输美商品征收10%关税;中方迅速反击,宣布对美国600亿美元商品征收10%5%关税。自此,伴随着美方不断抬高要价,双方打打谈谈,剧情跌宕起伏,全世界也领略了美方一幕幕出尔反尔的“变脸”大戏。  

On 22 March last year, President Trump signed an executive memorandum to impose large scale tariffs on imports from China and restricted China companies from investing in the U.S., based on the result of “Section 301 investigation”. This was the first shot of China-U.S. trade disputes. In the September of the same year, during the Mid-Autumn festivals, the U.S. again abruptly announced plans to impose 10% tariffs on 200 billion USD of Chinese goods. China fought back swiftly, announcing 5% or 10% tariff on 60 billion USD of U.S. imports. Later on, with the U.S. side raising the stakes repeatedly, we have seen our fair share of fights and talks, highs and lows. The world has also watched a great drama of constant “face-changing” and backtracking by the U.S. side.

 

马哈蒂尔总理所言极是:中美贸易战是“两个巨人打架,地上草石遭殃”。在经济全球化背景下,中美作为两个最大的经济体,合则两利,斗则俱伤,更关乎世界经济荣衰。由于中美经贸摩擦前景不明,世界贸易组织已将2019年全球贸易增长速度预期由3.7%下调至2.6%。过去近两年时间里,世界笼罩在这场史无前例的贸易摩擦阴云下,很多国家都忧心忡忡,担心全球经济被拖入“衰退陷阱”。  

Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir has rightly compared the China-U.S. trade war to the scenario where “two elephants fight, and the grass gets stomped”. China and the U.S., as the two largest economies in the global economy, will only thrive together in cooperation, or wither together in confrontation, with the world economy following the suit. Due to the uncertainty of the prospect of China-U.S. trade disputes, the WTO has lowered its forecast for global trade growth in 2019 from 3.7 percent to 2.6 percent. Over the past two years, with the dark cloud of “trade war” looming over the world, many countries are worried that the global economy would be dragged into the “recession trap”.

 

就中方而言,这场贸易摩擦完全是被迫应战,是反击经济霸凌之战,维护自身核心利益和正当发展权益之战,也是捍卫国际经济秩序和自由贸易体系之战。上个月,中国国务院新闻办公室发表《关于中美经贸磋商的中方立场》白皮书,全面阐明了中方对“贸易战”问题的立场,我在此不再赘述,愿仅指出四点基本事实:  

China was pulled into the trade war, with its back to the wall. For China, this is a war to combat economic bullying, a war to safeguard our legitimate right of development, and a war to safeguard the international rules and the multilateral trade system. Last month, the State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China issued a white paper entitled China’s Position on the China-U.S. Economic and Trade Consultations, which comprehensively elaborated on China’s position on the “trade disputes”, so I would not go into details here. Instead, I wish to point out four basic facts.

 

一,美方一手挑起对华贸易摩擦,本质是借“公平贸易”之名,行“经济霸凌”之实;手段是挥舞关税“大棒”,推行单边主义和保护主义;目的是服务“美国优先”政策,胁迫中国放弃自身利益和发展权益。  

Firstly, the ultimate motive of the U.S. starting the trade war towards China is to bully the latter under the name of “fair trade”. The U.S., wielding its “club of tariff” and carrying the banner of unilateralism and protectionism, blatantly pursues the policy of “America First” and tries to coerce China into giving up its own interests and development rights.

 

二,美方适得其反,正为此付出惨痛代价:拉升了国内生产成本,抬高了本国物价水平,降低了经济增长速度,阻碍了对华出口规模。根据福布斯网站最新统计数据,与2018年前4个月相比,美国石油出口减少24.9亿美元,其中向中国出口从11%下降至2.6%;石油气对华出口下降87%,减少6.4亿美元;棉花对华出口下降48.33%,减少2.89亿美元;大豆对华出口下降27.49%,减少7.1亿美元。美国国内反对贸易战的声浪此起彼伏,日益高涨。

Secondly, the U.S. decisions are counterproductive, and it is getting a taste of its own medicine. Due to the trade war, the domestic production costs and prices have raised significantly, and the economic growth of the U.S. has been hindered and the exports from the U.S. to China has scaled down. According to the latest statistics on the Forbes website, oil exports from the U.S. fell by 2.49 billion USD compared with the first four months of 2018, among which the exports to China fell from 11% to 2.6%. The LPG exports from the U.S. to China fell by 87%, decreasing 640 million USD. Cotton exports from the U.S. to China fell by 48.33%, decreasing 289 million USD. Soybean exports to China fell by 27.49%, decreasing 710 million USD. The objections against the trade war inside the U.S. have been making waves, and are only getting louder.

 

三,美国低估了中国维护核心利益反击经济霸凌的实力。作为世界第二大经济体,中国拥有任何国家都不想失去的、也无可替代的庞大市场,拥有完整的产业链条,便利的基础设施和良好的营商环境。出口对中国经济的拉动作用持续减小,而消费连续五年成为经济增长第一动力,2018年对经济增长贡献率达到76.2%。事实证明,从美方发起挑战至今,中国经济非但没有如美方预言那样“垮掉”,反而保持持续健康发展的良好态势。  

Thirdly, the U.S. has underestimated China’s determination and capacity to safeguard its core interests and to counter economic bullying. As the world’s second largest economy, China has a huge and irreplaceable domestic market that no country could bear to lose. China has its complete industry chain, advanced infrastructures and business-friendly environments. Consumption has become the main driver of China’s economic growth for five consecutive years, with a contribution rate of 76.2% to China’s economic growth in 2018, while the contribution rate of exports has been decreasing. As a matter of fact, instead of a total “collapse” as predicted by the U.S., the Chinese economy has maintained a good momentum of sustained and steady development.

 

四,捍卫多边贸易体系、建设开放型世界经济是“人间正道”。马来西亚以贸易立国,2018年马经济对外贸的依存度达到130%。维护一个公平、开放、透明的多边贸易体系,对包括马来西亚在内的所有国家实现可持续发展至关重要。短期看,亚洲国家某些产业也许会成为美国和中国企业寻找进口替代和生产转移的受益者,但长远看,各个经济体之间是一个整体,是全球价值链的组成部分,任何链条停摆,都会带来整个体系的损失。以投机主义、侥幸心态来看待中美贸易战,以为能够幸免于难甚至从中获利,是不切实际的想法。  

Lastly, it is only right to defend the multilateral trading system and to build an open world economy. Malaysia is a pro-trade country with a highly globalized economy, with exports and imports of goods and services equivalent to about 130% of GDP in 2018. A fair, open and transparent international trade system is crucial to each country’s development and prosperity, including Malaysia. In short term, Asian countries like Malaysia may become the beneficiaries of production relocation or import substitute caused by the trade war. However in the long run, all Asian economies work as a part of the global value chain. Any break in the chain will cause systematic damage to all of us. It is an unrealistic idea to look at the China-U.S. trade war with opportunism or a fluke mind, hoping that any of us could survive or even profit from it.

 

习近平主席多次强调:“世界好,中国才好;中国好,世界才更好”。这正是中国提出“一带一路”倡议的初衷和坚持多边主义的底气所在。中国5000年文明倡导“和而不同”“求同存异”,我们从不把别国的发展视为对自己的威胁,决不为一己之私损害别国利益,更不会动辄以“极限施压”和“退群”“脱钩”相要挟。我们愿意秉持诚意和善意,在相互尊重、平等相待、诚信守诺的基础上同美方保持对话,争取互利共赢的解决方案,为全球市场注入信心和活力,为世界经济和全球治理做出积极贡献,通过合作而不是争斗,让中美两个伟大的国家变得更加伟大,让世界变得更加美好。但不论形势如何发展变化,中国将坚持做好自己的事,不断深化改革,扩大对外开放,保持经济持续健康发展的良好态势,并同世界形成更加良性的互动,继续扮演好世界经济增长引擎的角色。  

As President Xi Jinping emphasized many times, “China will do well only when the world does well, and vice versa.” This is precisely why China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative and commits itself to the multilateralism. The five-thousand-year Chinese civilization has always advocated the idea of “harmony among differences” and “seeking common ground while reserving differences”. We have never regarded the development of other countries as threats to ourselves, and never harmed others’ interests for our own benefits, letting alone threating others with maximum pressure, quitting from responsibilities or decoupling. The Chinese side, with all our sincerity and goodwill, is willing to reach a mutually beneficial solution with the U.S. side through dialogues and discussions based on mutual respect, equality and integrity, and thus bestowing the global market with confidence and vitality. We are willing to cooperate with, not to fight with, the U.S. to make positive contributions to the world economy and global governance, making China and the U.S. greater and the world better. But wherever the chip falls, China will keep true to its own path. China will remain committed to the reform and opening up policy, and maintain a sound momentum of economic growth. China will foster a more positive dynamic with the world, and continue to function as an engine for the global development.

 

最后,我想告诉那位媒体朋友:中美贸易摩擦不是一场有规则、有裁判的公平比赛,而是美方单方挑起、中方被迫反击的贸易冲突。中美两国元首大阪会晤达成的积极共识令人鼓舞,我们期待美方后续以实际行动,同中方相向而行,通过友好对话找到双方都能接受的解决方案。如果这场贸易摩擦能够得到顺利解决,不论是对中美两国还是对世界而言,无疑都是值得期待的事。  

Finally, I want to tell that friend from media that, the China-U.S. trade dispute is not a fair game with rules and referees, but a trade conflict that the U.S. unilaterally provoked and China was forced to fight back. The consensus reached during the meeting between President Xi Jinping and U.S. president Donald Trump at the G20 Summit is encouraging. We look forward to the U.S. side living up to its words, to work with the Chinese side and to find a solution acceptable to both sides through friendly dialogue. For China, the U.S. and the world, an eventual solution to the trade dispute would definitely worth the wait.