雄关漫道真如铁 而今迈步从头越
However Difficult It Might Seem, The Challenge Will Be Overcome
驻以色列大使詹永新在以《耶路撒冷邮报》发表署名文章
Ambassador Zhan Yongxin Publishes an Article on the Jerusalem Post
2019年6月7日
7 June 2019
贸易的本质是货品和服务的交换活动。各国各有所长，互通有无，通过贸易实现共同繁荣和普遍发展，这是一个简单的经济学常识。在人类历史长河中，贸易历来发挥着比剑与火更加重要的作用，地中海沿岸的人们应对此有深刻的理解。自4000多年前以来，繁荣的地中海贸易成就了腓尼基、埃及、犹太、希腊、罗马、阿拉伯等多种文明。
It is a common sense in economics that trade, the activities of exchanging goods and services, enables countries to draw upon each other’s strengths and leads the world to prosperity. History proves that it is trade, not swords nor firearms, that brings us peace and development. People along the Mediterranean should be able to understand it much better. Over the past 4000 years, it was the bustling inter-state trade across the Mediterranean that nurtured the Phoenician, Egyptian, Jewish, Greek, Roman and Arabic civilizations.
第二次世界大战之后，在多边自由贸易体制下，全球贸易和经济增长进入快车道。据世界银行统计，全球经济对贸易增长的依存度已从1960年的17.5%上升到2017年的51.7%。20世纪90年代后，信息技术革命和全球化加速发展，国际贸易以每年6.5％的速度强劲增长。以色列同样受益于此。1975年，以色列与欧洲共同市场签署第一份自贸协定，在其后数十年里，以国际贸易额增长934%，GDP增长近15倍。
Since the Second World War, the global trade and economy have moved onto a fast track thanks to the free trade system. According to the World Bank, global economic dependence on trade rose from 17.5% in 1960 to 51.9% in 2017. After the 1990s, international trade was further accelerated by information technology and globalization, reaching an annual growth rate of 6.5%. Israel was also part of this history. After reaching its first free trade agreement with the European Common Market in 1975, Israel has inked a series of FTAs with countries across the world. Powered by the trade deals, the combined value of Israel's export and import has surged 934 percent and Israel’s GDP has increased by 15 times.
然而近两年，曾主导缔造了自由贸易秩序的国家，走上了一条截然不同的道路。在所谓“让美国再次伟大”的口号下，本届美国政府挑起了与中国、加拿大、墨西哥、印度等多个国家和欧盟的贸易纠纷，严重损害多边贸易体制权威，扰乱全球产业链、供应链，使缓慢复苏的世界经济撞上了铁板。世界银行因此将2019年全球经济增长预期降至2.6%。
However, over the recent two years, the country that created the free trade system has veered off the course and embarked on a perilous road. Under the slogan of “make America great again”, the current US administration-initiated trade frictions not only with China, but also with EU, Canada, Mexico, India, etc. The measures taken by the US undermined the authority of the multilateral trading system, and seriously disrupted global industrial and supply chains. As a result, the anaemic global economy has hit on a wall of iron. The World Bank has to further downgrade the global growth prospects in 2019 to 2.6%.
然而，贸易摩擦并没有让美国再次伟大。德意志银行测算，2018年以来贸易纠纷使美国股市损失5万亿美元。去年美国34个州对华出口下降，其中24个州出现两位数降幅。美农产品对华出口同比减少33.1%，其中大豆降幅近50%，仅美国中西部地区就有84个农场申请破产，创金融危机以来的最高纪录，大豆全行业损失比2008年金融危机还大。美国智库“贸易伙伴”报告显示，如美国对所有中国输美商品加征25%的关税，美国国内生产总值将减少1.01%，就业岗位将减少216万个，一个四口之家每年支出将增加2294美元。
Moreover, trade disputes are not making America “great again”. According to Deutsche Bank, trade disputes have cost US stock markets over US$ 5 trillion. 34 American states have witnessed losses in their exports to China in 2018, with 24 of them seeing a double-digit decrease. The US agriculture sector was impacted most severely, with an estimated loss of over 33%. The export of the US soybeans plummeted by 50%, and 84 soybean farms in the Mid-West have filed for bankruptcy. The whole US soybean industry is experiencing the worst period since the 2008 global financial crisis. Trading Partnership, an American think-tank, calculates that if the US imposes 25 percent additional tariffs on all imported Chinese goods, the US GDP will decrease by 1.01 percent, with 2.16 million job losses and an additional annual burden of US$2,294 on a family of four.
中国始终主张通过谈判磋商解决经贸摩擦，但决不会在压力下退缩。我们不会为不合理的高要价买单，更不会接受任何涉及中国主权事务的强制性要求。
Facing with the escalating trade frictions, China’s position has stayed the same: we have to resolve the issues through negotiation and consultation. However, China will not succumb to the pressure, will not accommodate the exorbitant demands and will by no means accept the mandatory requirements concerning China’s sovereign affairs.
中国的立场和态度一贯明确，谈，大门敞开；打，奉陪到底。要谈就要秉持相互尊重、平等互利的精神，本着善意和诚信，且必须尊重彼此的主权和尊严。上世纪50到70年代，美国曾主导实施了对中国极为严酷的政治、经济、技术、军事全方位封锁，但中国没有被吓倒，也没有被压倒，凭借独立自主、自力更生，研制出了原子弹、氢弹和人造卫星，并建立了完备的工农业体系。那些身在21世纪但头脑还停留在上个世纪的人是注定要失败的，那些期待中华民族停止复兴进程的人也是注定要失败的。
China is open to negotiation, but will also fight to the end if needed. The negotiation must be carried out in the principle of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit. Parties must come to the table with good will and sincerity, and must respect the other side’s dignity and sovereignty. From the 1950s to the 1970s, the US has orchestrated and maintained extreme political, economic, technological and military blockade against China. But the US has failed to bring China to its knees. On the contrary, China has relied on itself and managed to establish a complete agricultural and industrial system. It was during the harsh blockade that China successfully tested its first atomic bomb, first hydrogen bomb and launched the first satellite. Those who live in the 21st Century while keeping the old mentalities of the last century are bound to fail. And those who wish to obstruct China’s national rejuvenation are bound to fail.
面临发展道路上的风险和挑战，中国有信心迎难而上，化危为机，开拓一片新天地。事实上，中国经济对外贸依赖度已有实质性下降，中国外贸依存度从2010年的48.8%下降到2018年的33.5%。国内消费已连续5年成为经济增长第一动力，对经济增长贡献率为76.2%。据渣打银行的一份研究报告，美国市场对中国经济的贡献率也已从2006年占GDP6.3%下降到2017年的3%左右。尽管受到压力，中国经济依然保持强劲，去年中国GDP增长6.6%，出口增长9.9%。今年一季度GDP增长6.4%，出口增长1.4% 。中国市场依然受到外资青睐，今年1至4月，中国实际利用外资同比增长6.4%。与此同时，国内的结构性改革将带来产品和企业竞争力的全面提升，财政和货币政策的充分空间，都能保持经济持续健康发展的良好态势，中国经济发展前景乐观。
Whatever the future might bring, China is confident of meeting challenges head-on, turning risks into opportunities, and opening new chapters. Over the years, China has substantially decreased its reliance on export. China’s trade dependence has dropped from 48.8% in 2010 to 33.5% in 2018. Domestic consumption has been the largest driving force for 5 consecutive years, contributing 76.2% to China’s GDP growth. According to Standard Chartered, the US market contributes 6.3% of China’s GDP in 2006, but in 2017, the number has dropped to 3%. Despite the external pressure, China’s economy remains robust. In 2018, China’s GDP and export grew by 6.6% and 9.9% respectively. In the first quarter of 2019, China’s GDP registered an increase of 6.4% and export further expanded by 1.4%. Nonetheless, China is still a popular destination for foreign investment. In the first four months of 2019, China saw an increase of 6.4% in the actual inflow of Foreign Direct Investment. China is also steadily moving ahead with structural reforms, so as to further unleash the competitiveness of Chinese companies and products. Room for fiscal and monetary policy maneuvers will be sufficient. All these are contributing to the long-term sustainable growth of China.
贸易是互惠互利，战争是相互毁灭，这两个词本不应放到一起。经贸领域的分歧和摩擦，只应通过对话和磋商来解决。一个互利双赢的经贸协议将符合各方的利益和世界各国的期待。
Trade is supposed to be mutually beneficial, but wars are doomed to end in mutual destruction. The two words should never be put together. Dialogue and consultation is the only way to resolve economic and trade frictions. A win-win trade deal will serve the interests of all parties and meet the expectations of the world.