Finding a Path to the Higher Plain of Inclusive Growth
找到一条通往包容性增长高地的道路
By Christine Lagarde
Astana Economic Forum – Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Opening Remarks
克里斯蒂娜·拉加德
阿斯塔纳经济论坛–哈萨克斯坦，努尔苏丹
开幕致辞
2019年5月16日
16 May 2019
Introduction
引言
Salem! Good morning.
Salem! 上午好。
Thank you, Yel’bassy Nazarbayev, for welcoming me to this year’s forum.
纳扎尔巴耶夫阁下，谢谢您邀请我参加今年的论坛。
As I arrived in Nur-Sultan yesterday, I thought about the last time I visited Kazakhstan. On that trip, so many people shared with me the words of the famous poet, Abai. One of his phrases has stuck with me over the years: “While walking slowly, stride confidently.”
我昨天抵达努尔苏丹时，想到了我对哈萨克斯坦的上一次访问。在那次访问中，很多人跟我说起著名诗人阿拜的诗句。其中一句令我多年难忘：“慢慢前行，自信迈步”。
So, today, I would like to borrow this idea as we discuss the outlook and the challenges for the region.
那么，今天在讨论本地区前景和挑战时，我就借用这一说法。
I. The Outlook: Global and Regional
一、前景：全球和地区
We are gathered at a delicate moment for the global economy.
全球经济处于微妙时刻。
Two years ago, 75 percent of the global economy experienced an upswing. This year, we expect 70 percent to experience a slowdown in growth.
两年前，75%的全球经济经历了增长加速。今年，我们预计70%将经历增长减缓。
The loss of global growth momentum in the second half of 2018 reflected in large part trade tensions and tightening financial conditions. Yet, over the next six months, we expect the global economy to rebound. So, you can see what I mean by a delicate moment.
全球经济2018年下半年失去增长势头的主要原因是贸易紧张局势和金融环境收紧。但今后六个月，我们预计全球经济将回升。所以，你可以看到，我说的微妙时刻是指什么。
The next steps we take together will be critical in putting us on the right path. This region will play a key role.
我们今后携手采取的行动至关重要，将使我们走上正确的路。这一地区将发挥关键作用。
Throughout the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA), growth has picked up since 2014 and is now expected to remain at 4.1 percent this year and in 2020. However, this number is still well below the long-term potential for the region – and it is too low if the region is to raise living standards to the level of other emerging economies in Europe and Asia.
高加索和中亚地区的增长自2014年回升，目前预计今年和2020年将保持在4.1%。然而，这一增长率仍显著低于该地区的长期潜在水平，并且这一增长率远远不够使该地区将生活标准提高到欧洲和亚洲其他新兴经济体的水平。
So, the challenge is clear. We need to elevate growth to a higher plain. We need to stride carefully, yet confidently on this path. We need good domestic policies, increased economic diversification, and stronger international cooperation.
所以，挑战是明确的。我们需要将经济增长提升到更高的水平。在这条路上，我们需要谨慎但自信地迈步前行。我们需要实施完善的国内政策，提高经济多元化程度，并加强国际合作。
Most importantly, we need inclusive and sustainable growth that lifts up the prospects of women, young people, the poor, and those who live in rural areas, and that raises the expectations of future generations.
最重要的是，我们需要具有包容性、可持续的经济增长，改善妇女、年轻人、贫困人口和农村居民的生活前景，使我们的子孙后代有更高的期望。
New IMF research, released today, focuses on achieving precisely this kind of inclusive growth in the region. Allow me to briefly highlight the path we see.
国际货币基金组织今天发布的新研究正是重点探讨实现该地区的包容性增长。我来简要谈谈实现这一目标的路径。
II. The Path to Inclusive Growth
二、通向包容性增长之路
There is no “one-size-fits-all” solution, but a few principles are clear.
不存在普遍适用的解决办法，但有一些原则是明确的。
First, fiscal policy should balance debt concerns with critical initiatives in health, education, and infrastructure. Here, the IMF will continue to support the region through technical assistance and capacity development programs.
首先，财政政策应平衡考虑债务问题与医疗、教育和基础设施方面的重要举措。在这方面，国际货币基金组织将继续通过技术援助和能力建设项目为该地区提供支持。
Second, corruption needs to be addressed head-on in the region. 2019 is an opportune moment to provide increased transparency and foster more trust between citizens and the government.
其次，该地区需要迎头解决腐败问题。2019年是提高透明度并加强公民与政府之间信任的有利时机。
Third, women and other under-represented groups can be empowered by continuing to eliminate legal and economic barriers. I am pleased to say that through the hard work of the government and private companies female labor force participation in Kazakhstan is now at 65% – the highest in the region and a benchmark for every country in Central Asia.
第三，可以通过继续消除法律和经济障碍来赋权于妇女和代表性不足的群体。我很高兴地指出，在政府和私营企业的艰苦努力下，哈萨克斯坦的女性劳动力参与率目前达到了65%，处于本地区最高水平，成为每个中亚国家的参照基准。
Fourth and finally, the financial sector should be sound and its services widely accessible. Just 45 percent of adults in CCA countries have a banking account – almost 20 percent lower than the average in other emerging markets. Furthermore, only 3 percent of citizens have mobile money accounts.
第四，也是最后一点，金融部门应当稳健，金融服务应当可以广泛获得。在高加索和中亚地区国家的成年人中，只有45%拥有银行账户，比其他新兴市场平均水平几乎低20%。此外，仅有3%的公民拥有移动货币账户。
These numbers reveal an incredible untapped resource for the region. And a resource that is environmentally sustainable and that can procure diversification from oil and gas as the predominant sources of growth!
这些数字揭示了该地区拥有巨大的未开发潜力。这种资源在环境方面更可持续，能降低经济对石油和天然气作为主要增长源的依赖，实现多元化。
If Central Asia can harness the power of fintech, as emerging economies in other regions have done, the potential gains for the poor, women, and young people are significant.
如果中亚地区能够利用金融科技的力量，就像其他地区的新兴经济体一样，那么给贫困人口、妇女和年轻人带来的潜在收益将相当大。
Each of these principles is part of the toolkit the region needs in order to reach a higher plain of inclusive growth. And while this morning my focus is on more inclusion within countries, today’s forum is also a chance to build more connections between countries.
这些原则中的每一项都是该地区所需政策工具包的一部分，目标是到达包容性增长的高地。尽管我今天上午重点谈的是提高一国内部的包容性，但今天的论坛也为加强各国之间的联系提供了机会。
In 2018, in Central Asia, less than 10 percent of trade was conducted between countries in the region. In the European Union, the number is over 60 percent.
2018年，中亚地区的贸易不到10%是在本地区各国之间开展的。欧盟的这一数字是60%以上。
The landscape, however, is beginning to shift. In just the past year there has been a surge of trade on the Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan border. New regional opportunities in the form of roads, railways, and electricity grids are finally coming online. And last month, a “Silk Visa” plan was announced to allow for easier travel between the nations of Central Asia.
但格局正开始变化。仅仅就在过去一年，哈萨克斯坦与乌兹别克斯坦边境的贸易大幅增加。新的地区机会终于形成，体现在公路、铁路、电网等方面。上个月宣布了“丝路签证”计划，目的是让中亚国家之间的旅行变得更加容易。
These initiatives can rebuild the Silk Road connections that once helped this part of the world become a hub for global trade and learning. And they can play a role in each country’s journey to achieve more diversified, sustainable, and inclusive growth.
这些举措能够重建丝绸之路联系，这种联系曾经帮助这个地区成为全球贸易和学习的枢纽。在每个国家实现更加多元化、可持续、包容性增长的征途中，这种联系将发挥作用。
Conclusion
结语
Let me conclude. I believe inclusive growth is well within the reach of this nation and all countries in the region. We can actually draw inspiration from our surroundings.
我来做个总结。我相信，哈萨克斯坦和本地区所有国家完全有能力实现包容性增长。我们实际上可以从周围的环境获得启迪。
You may be asking yourself, “We are in the steppes, in the flat lands, what inspiration can our surrounding provide about higher growth?” Well, quite a bit.
你们也许会问自己：“我们在草原、在平原上，对于提高增长而言，周围的环境能给我们什么样的启迪？” 嗯，启迪可有不少。
Think of the famous proverb: “Kazakh hearts are like the steppes – wide, kind, and generous.”
想一想这句著名的谚语：“哈萨克人的心就像草原——广袤、宽容、慷慨。”
If we all embrace that spirit, we can generate economic growth, raise living standards, and provide new chances for millions.
如果我们都能秉承这一精神，我们就能创造经济增长，提高生活水平，为数百万人提供新的机会。
That will indeed be a higher plain.
这确实将是一片更高的平原。
Thank you very much. Rakhmet.
非常感谢。Rakhmet.