把握中国经济的“变”与“不变”
The Chinese Economy: What Has Changed and What Has Not?
驻英国大使刘晓明在英国毕马威会计师事务所早餐会上的主旨演讲
Keynote Speech by H.E. Ambassador Liu Xiaoming at the KPMG Breakfast Meeting
伦敦，2019年2月20日
London, 20 February 2019
尊敬的毕马威会计师事务所金融服务业副主席塞耶先生，
女士们、先生们、朋友们，
Vice Chairman David Sayer,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Dear Friends:
早上好！
Good morning!
很高兴出席英国毕马威会计师事务所早餐会。昨天是中国农历正月十五元宵节，这是象征着团圆与美满的节日。很高兴在这个万象更新的时节，与各位企业界朋友进行交流。
Yesterday was the Lantern Festival. On this day, the Chinese families would all come out of their houses to mark the last day of the Chinese New Year celebration with lantern display and fun fair, and get ready for back-to-work day. So, on the first day of work according to the Chinese lunar calendar, may I say it is such a delight to join you at the KPMG for this breakfast meeting to mark the beginning of a whole year’s work and to exchange views with you on the Chinese economy.
近来，中国经济走向一直是各方关注焦点。塞耶副主席希望我谈谈对中国经济的看法。我认为，中国经济的特点可以总结为四个“变”与四个“不变”：
The Chinese economy has been a hot topic lately. David asked me to share my thoughts. So I did some homework and summarized what has changed, and what has not, in the Chinese economy.
首先，外部经济环境在变，长期向好的前景没有变。当前，世界经济下行风险加大，不确定不稳定因素增多。国际贸易增长动能减弱，全球金融市场动荡加剧，各类风险加快积聚。保护主义和单边主义给世界经济蒙上阴影，中美贸易摩擦影响逐渐显现。
First, China’s external economic environment has changed, but the long-term growth momentum of the Chinese economy has not. In the world economy, the downward pressure is mounting, and uncertainties and instabilities are increasing. These are caused by weakening driving forces for international trade, increasing turbulence in the global financial market, accumulating risks, and looming protectionism and unilateralism. China-US trade friction is also gradually taking its toll.
面对复杂严峻的外部环境，2018年中国国内生产总值（GDP）达13.6万亿美元，经济增速为6.6%。不少人渲染中国经济放缓。事实上，这一数据不仅高于6.5%的预定目标，位居世界前五大经济体之首，而且是在经济总量近14万亿美元的高基数上取得的。长远看，中国完全有信心和能力保持经济运行在合理区间。中国建国70年特别是改革开放40多年来，中国经济已经形成坚实基础，为未来发展提供了强大韧性和稳定性。
Despite the complex and severe external environment, China’s GDP reached $13.6 trillion in 2018 and the growth rate was 6.6%. Some people point to the slowdown of Chinese economy, but the fact is: This growth rate was higher than the 6.5% target; it is the highest of the five biggest economies in the world; and given the size of the Chinese economy, that is, nearly $14 trillion, this growth rate was indeed amazing. In the long run, China has the confidence and capability to make sure its economy will grow within the anticipated range. After 70 years since the founding of New China, especially after more than 40 years of reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has built up a solid foundation, which will ensure the strong resilience and stability in its future growth.
第二，市场主体和动能在变，转型升级的方向没有变。随着创新驱动发展战略的实施，新产业新产品不断成长，新业态新模式蓬勃发展。2018年，中国新能源汽车、光纤、智能电视产量分别比上年增长40.1%、23%和18.7%；全年新登记企业670万户，比上年增长10.3%，日均新登记企业1.84万户。数字消费、电子商务、现代供应链、互联网金融等新技术相互融合，平台经济、共享经济、智能经济方兴未艾。
Second, market entities and growth engines have changed, but the direction of economic restructuring and upgrading has not. As China pursues innovation-driven development, new industries, new products and new business models have flourished. In 2018, the output of new energy vehicles grew by 40.1%, optical fiber by 23% and smart television by 18.7%. Newly-registered companies totaled 6.7 million last year. That was a 10.3% increase over the previous year, and it means that on average 18,400 companies were registered every day. New technologies, such as digital economy, e-commerce, modern supply chain and network financing, have achieved an integrated development. Platform economy, sharing economy and smart economy are flourishing.
同时，中国经济正从高速增长向高质量发展转型，经济结构进一步优化。2018年，最终消费对经济增长贡献率达76.2%，第三产业贡献率为59.7%，高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业增加值比重为13.9%，比2017年提高1.2%。中国坚持推进节能减排和发展绿色经济。2018年，万元国内生产总值能耗比上年下降3.1%，清洁能源消费量占能源消费总量比重提高约1.3%。此外，宏观杠杆率趋稳，债务水平处于可控范围。2018年末，中国银行业境内总资产261.4万亿元，不良贷款率仅为1.89%。
At the same time, the Chinese economy is shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, and the economic structure is optimising. In 2018, final consumption expenditure contributed 76.2% of economic growth; tertiary industry contributed 59.7%; and the value-added of the high-tech manufacturing industries accounted for 13.9% of the total increase of the industrial enterprises above the designated size, which was 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. China is also stepping up energy conservation and emission reduction. We are working on a green economy. In 2018, energy consumption per unit GDP decreased by 3.1%; and the share of clean energy in total energy consumption increased by 1.3%. Moreover, China has steadied the macro-economic leverage ratio and kept the debt level under control. By the end of 2018, domestic assets of China’s banking sector had totaled 261.4 trillion RMB yuan, with the ratio of non-performing loans standing at only 1.89%.
第三，改革力度和手段在变，对外开放的决心没有变。中国正深入推进供给侧结构性改革，积极挖掘内需潜力。我们将精准把握宏观调控的度，更多运用市场化、法治化手段。我们将以增强微观主体活力为重点，发挥企业和企业家主观能动性，促进正向激励和优胜劣汰。我们还将畅通国民经济循环，加快建设统一开放、竞争有序的现代市场体系，不断提高金融体系服务实体经济能力，形成国内市场和生产主体、经济增长和就业扩大、金融和实体经济的良性循环。
Third, the intensity and measures of reform have changed, but China’s determination to stay open has not. China is deepening the supply-side structural reform and taking vigorous efforts to tap the potential of domestic consumption. In this process, we will put in place carefully measured macro regulation and control, and rely on market rules and rule of law. We will focus on invigorating micro-entities by giving enterprises and entrepreneurs the initiative. This will be achieved by giving them positive incentives and encouraging market competition. We will work on better circulation in our national economy, build a unified and open modern market system with orderly competition, and improve financial services. Through these efforts, we will enable a virtuous cycle between domestic market and producers, between economic growth and employment expansion, and between the financial sector and the real economy.
同时，中国始终坚持对外开放基本国策，出台一系列放宽市场准入、促进投资自由便利的政策。2018年，中国成功举办首届国际进口博览会，把平均关税水平从上年的9.8%降到7.5%。世界银行《2019年营商环境报告》显示，中国营商环境在190个经济体中位列第46位，比上年提升32位。2018年全球跨国直接投资同比下降19%，中国引资逆势增长，实际使用外资1350亿美元，增长3%；全年新设外资企业超过6万家，增长69.8%，其中英国对华投资增长150.1%。中国用行动展现了支持贸易自由化、向世界开放市场的决心。
Amidst all these efforts, China is committed to the basic national policy of opening up. We have adopted a number of measures to increase market access and promote investment liberalisation and facilitation. In 2018, China successfully hosted the first International Import Expo, and brought down average tariff from 9.8% to 7.5%. According to World Bank report Doing Business 2019, China ranks the 46th out of 190 economies in the ease of doing business, moving up by 32 places than the previous year. The following figures show how this was achieved. Despite a steep 19% drop in global FDI, foreign investment flowing into China totaled $135 billion, increasing by 3%. Newly-set-up foreign businesses in China topped 60,000, increasing by 69.8%. Of all these, British investment in China soared by 150.1%. With its concrete actions, China has demonstrated to the world its determination to support trade liberalisation and open its market.
第四，在全球治理中的角色在变，惠及世界的担当没有变。中国的发展离不开世界，世界的繁荣也需要中国。近年来，中国在全球治理中发挥了积极作用。我们在二十国集团领导人峰会、亚太经合组织领导人非正式会议、金砖国家领导人会晤等场合旗帜鲜明地反对保护主义和单边主义，坚定维护以规则为基础的多边自由贸易体制，提出中国倡议和中国方案，引导多边对话朝着合作、包容、共赢的方向发展。
Fourth, China’s role in the global governance has changed, but its resolve to share benefits with the world has not. China cannot achieve development in isolation from the world, and the world needs China in realising global prosperity. In recent years, China has played an active role in global governance. At the G20 summit, APEC Economic Leaders’ meeting and BRICS summit, China has stood up against protectionism and unilateralism, upheld the rule-based multilateral free trade system firmly, and proposed China’s plans and solutions. These have been important in making sure that multilateral dialogues focus on inclusive development and win-win cooperation.
同时，中国始终坚持合作共赢，促进共同发展。中国连续多年是世界经济增长最大贡献者，2018年对世界经济增长贡献率接近30%。中国巨大的消费和投资空间为全球创造了更多就业。“一带一路”倡议成为中国发展惠及各方、面向全球的公共产品。截至2018年，中国在“一带一路”沿线国家累计投资289亿美元，上交东道国税收20亿美元，为当地创造就业岗位24.4万个。展望未来，中国经济这一全球最重要的引擎动力充沛，将继续为世界经济增长发挥不可替代的作用。
China has also taken concrete actions in this respect. China has been the largest contributor to world economic growth for many years in a row. In 2018, China accounted for nearly 30% of world economic growth. With huge consumer potential and investment opportunities, China has also created a large amount of jobs for the world. Take the Belt and Road Initiative for example. BRI has become a public good for the whole world by allowing all participating parties to benefit from China’s development. By the end of 2018, China had invested $28.9 billion in countries along the BRI routes, paid $2 billion in tax to host countries and created 244,000 jobs for the local communities. Looking ahead, I am confident that the Chinese economy, as the most important growth engine in the world, will maintain robust development and play an indispensable role in global economic growth.
女士们、先生们、朋友们，
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Dear Friends:
今年是中英建立代办级外交关系65周年。在双方共同努力下，中英各领域务实合作取得积极成果，经贸、投资、金融合作亮点纷呈。同时，由于众所周知的原因，去年中英关系遭受挫折。我们希望，中英双方都能珍惜两国关系来之不易的成果，坚持“黄金时代”大方向，排除各种干扰，推动两国关系早日重归正轨。
This year marks the 65th anniversary of the establishment of China-UK diplomatic relationship at the level of chargé d’affaires. Over the past 65 years, China and the UK have achieved fruitful results in our cooperation across the board, thanks to the concerted efforts of both sides. There have been numerous highlights in our economic, trade, investment and financial cooperation. However, as we all know, China-UK relations encountered some setbacks last year. In order to cherish the hard-won momentum in the relations and keep to the direction of the “Golden Era”, both China and the UK should resist interruptions and bring the bilateral relations back on track at an early date.
在此背景下，我也由衷期待，包括毕马威在内的企业界人士能积极发挥自身优势，把握对华合作广阔机遇，为中英关系“黄金时代”注入更多正能量，贡献更多“黄金成果”。具体而言，可重点抓住三方面机遇：
Under such circumstances, it is my sincere hope that the business community, including KPMG, will leverage its advantages and seize the enormous opportunities of cooperation with China. This will inject much needed positive energy into the “Golden Era” and produce more “golden fruits”. In my opinion, UK businesses could find opportunities in the following three aspects:
第一，中英政策和产业对接的桥梁机遇。中英都支持自由贸易和开放经济。双方应坚持开放合作，共同捍卫开放经济，反对各种形式的保护主义，为两国企业打造公平、透明、非歧视性的营商环境。中国正逐步放宽或取消银行、保险、证券、汽车、船舶等行业外资股比限制，这为中英不断深化务实合作创造了更加有利的条件。今年中国将举办第二届国际进口博览会，欢迎英国企业继续积极参会，把更多优质英国产品和服务带到中国。
First, you could find opportunities in forging a strong link between China and the UK based on our industrial and policy synergy. Both China and the UK support free trade and an open economy. It is important that we work together to uphold open cooperation, safeguard the open economy, oppose protectionism of all forms and foster a fair, transparent and non-discriminatory business environment for the companies of our two countries. China is lifting and easing restrictions on foreign ownership in joint venture firms in sectors such as banking, insurance, securities, auto manufacturing and ship building. This has created more favourable conditions for our two countries to deepen business cooperation. This year, China will host the second International Import Expo. We welcome British companies to the Expo and hope you will bring more British products and services to the Chinese market.
第二，共建“一带一路”的平台机遇。“一带一路”沿线国家贸易往来持续深化，投资潜力不断释放，重大项目带动效应凸显。2019年中国将举办第二届“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛，与国际伙伴共同推动“一带一路”向高质量、高标准、高水平发展。最近有研究报告称，“一带一路”倡议今年将为全球贸易增加1170亿美元，其中中国将从约80个国家多进口价值610亿美元的商品。展望未来，中英在“一带一路”框架下开展合作大有可为。毕马威会计师事务所已经就中英“一带一路”合作发表了两篇报告，希望你们在新的一年继续为加强中英“一带一路”合作献计献策。
Second, you could find opportunities in building a platform for cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative. Thanks to BRI development, countries along the routes have enhanced trade, tapped investment potential and benefited from major projects. In 2019, China will host the second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. We look forward to working together with global partners to ensure that BRI development is of higher quality, up to a higher standard and at a higher level. According to a recent report, BRI will add $117 billion to global trade this year, including $61 billion worth of imports by China from about 80 countries. BRI promises great potential for China-UK cooperation. I read and appreciated the two reports on BRI issued by the KPMG. I look forward to more suggestions and ideas from you in the new year.
第三，新一轮科技革命等创新机遇。新科技革命和产业变革是一次全方位变革，将对人类生产模式、生活方式、价值理念产生深刻影响。我们应该以只争朝夕的精神，充分激发创新潜能和市场活力，深化国际创新交流合作，更好应对各自和共同的发展挑战。今年4月，第十七届中国国际人才交流大会将在深圳举办，英国将是唯一主宾国，这必将为两国创新和人才交流合作注入强劲动力。
Third, you could find opportunities in the innovations brought about by the new round of scientific and technological revolution. This round of scientific revolution, and the industrial transformation that comes with it, is all dimensional. Its impact on the production model, lifestyle and value will be profound. To keep up with this trend, we should take prompt actions to stimulate the innovation potential, invigorate the market, and enhance international exchanges and cooperation on innovation. We must get ready to take on our respective and common challenges in the future development of our countries. In April this year, the 17th China International Talent Exchange Conference will be held in Shenzhen. The UK will be the only “country of honour”. I am sure this event will give a fresh boost to China-UK cooperation on innovation and talent exchange.
女士们、先生们、朋友们，
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Dear Friends:
企业家是引领世界经济增长的重要力量，也是经济全球化的弄潮儿。英国毕马威自2005年成立中英业务部以来，在华业务不断发展，为推进中英关系和互利合作做出积极贡献。展望新的一年，我衷心希望，中英两国工商界人士携手努力，抓住机遇，深化合作，共同推进中英关系“黄金时代”行稳致远！
Entrepreneurs are an important force leading economic growth and riding the waves of globalisation. In 2005, the KPMG established the China Desk and has since expanded its business in China and made positive contribution to China-UK relations and mutually beneficial cooperation. I sincerely hope that, in the new year, the business communities of our two countries will join hands to seize the opportunities and deepen cooperation. Together, you could make greater contribution to the steady and sustained development of the China-UK “Golden Era”!
谢谢！
Thank you!