驻美国大使崔天凯在第八届中美民间对话上的讲话

Remarks by Ambassador Cui Tiankai at the 8th US-China Civil Dialogue

 

2018年7月25日

25 July 2018

 

很高兴再次来到卡内基国际和平基金会和这么多老朋友相聚。我注意到今天会议的主题是“为复杂多变的中美关系导航”，“导航”这个词让我想起时任美国财长盖特纳在2009年首轮中美战略与经济对话上的讲话。他引用中国“风雨同舟”这句成语指出，美中两国实际上同处一艘被狂风和巨浪袭击的大船上。当时，世界正面临国际金融危机冲击。

It is really a great pleasure and honor for me to come back to Carnegie and meet with so many old friends. I have noticed that the theme of the Dialogue today is “Navigating Through the Uncertainties in US-China Relations”. The word “navigating” reminds me of what was said by former Secretary of Treasury Tim Geithner at the opening ceremony of the first round of S&ED. He said, “we are actually in the same big boat that has been hit by fierce wind and huge waves”, which was at the time of the international financial crisis.

 

9年已经过去了，我们依然面临着各种狂风巨浪。这个世界依然不稳定、不安全。我们依然面临恐怖主义和大规模杀伤性武器扩散威胁，依然面临层出不穷的地区冲突的威胁，大国关系也面临新的十字路口。世界依然充满不确定性。没人能够预测下次国际金融危机、重大疫情甚至是战争何时到来。面对这些狂风巨浪，中美还在同一条船上吗？

Now nine years have passed, we are still faced with such fierce wind and huge waves. The world is still quite unstable and unsafe. We are still faced with terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. We still have a number of regional conflicts going on. The relations between major countries have come to a crossroad. There are still lots of uncertainties. And of course, nobody can predict when the next financial crisis will come, the next outbreak of major epidemic, natural disaster, or even a war. We are still faced with such fierce wind and huge waves. But are we still in the same boat?

 

我相信我们仍然在同一条船上。我们仍然生活在小小的地球村，这是我们共同的星球，除非有朝一日我们能找到办法把人类送上火星。但有些人认为，中美已经不在同一条船上了。有些人甚至认为，中美分处两条不同的船，并且会走向迎头相撞。为此他们还有一套自己的理论。

I believe we are still in the same boat. We still live in this small global village, this planet of ours, unless someday we find a way to send people onto the Mars. But there are those who believe we are no longer in the same boat. Some even believe that we are in different boats, and our boats will have a head-on collision sometime down the way. And they have arguments to support such a belief.

 

有人认为，美国在过去几十年未能改变中国，因此中美已经而且不应在同一条船上。我们都读过这样的文章，文章还出自曾深度参与制订美国对华政策的人士之手。但我认为，改变中国是一种幻觉。我不认为中美两国真的能够像有些人鼓吹的那样去改变对方。中国有自己的历史、文化、政治和经济体制。中国无论发生什么变化，都是由中国漫长的历史所决定的。任何国家都不可能真正改变中国。改变中国不应是包括美国政府在内的任何国家对华政策目标。我相信这也不是历任美国总统的对华政策目标。我和基辛格博士谈过这个问题，他告诉我改变中国从来不是当年他和尼克松总统打开中美关系大门的初衷。

Some of them believe that because the US has failed to change China over the past decades, we are no longer in the same boat, and should not be in the same boat. We’ve all read articles like this, written by people who actually took a large part in the formulation of the US policy towards China. But I think this is an illusion. I don’t think that our two countries can really change each other as some have advocated. China has its own history, culture, and political and economic systems. Whatever has happened in China is an outcome of China’s long history. I don’t think that any country can really change China. And that shouldn’t be the policy goal of any country, including the US. I don’t think that was the goal of successive American Presidents over the past four decades. I talked with Dr. Henry Kissinger, and he said that was never his goal, or President Nixon’ goal, when they started to reopen relations with China

 

有人认为，中国是试图挑战国际规则的“修正主义”国家，因此中美已经而且不应在同一条船上。这种指责显然不符合事实。今年是中国改革开放40周年。明年我们将迎来中美建交40周年。回顾历史，中国加入的国际组织越来越多，签署的国际条约和公约越来越多，接受的国际规则也越来越多。有人指责中国履行入世承诺的表现。而实际上，中国为入世谈判了15年，认真学习、适应、遵守世贸组织规则，也付出了很高的代价。公平地说，中国履行入世承诺的记录是公开、透明的，忠实履行了入世承诺。

But there are people who believe that we are not in the same boat because China is a kind of “revisionist country”, trying to challenge international rules. This is not based on facts either.  This year marks the 40th anniversary of China’s reform and opening up. Early next year will mark the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and the US. Look at the history of China over the past decades, and we can find that China has joined more and more international organizations, acceded to more and more international treaties and conventions, and accepted more and more international rules. For instance, some people are unhappy with China’s performance in the WTO. Actually it took us 15 years to join the WTO. We learned about its rules, adapted to them, and abided by them. It is fair to say that China’s record in the WTO is open, transparent, and faithful to our commitment to the organization.

 

与此同时，让我们看看美国的记录。坦率地讲，美国做了很多改变国际规则的事，这大概始于尼克松政府放弃金本位，冲击布雷顿森林体系。20多年前，美方又以“人权高于主权”为名侵犯别国主权。近来，美方相继退出气候变化巴黎协定、伊核全面协议、联合国教科文组织。一些人甚至提议美国应退出WTO。我不知道这是否会发生，美国究竟会走多远。回顾这些记录不难发现，“修正主义”这个头衔更适合美国而非中国。

At the same time, maybe I am being very frank by saying that, if we take a look at the record of the US over these years, the US has taken a lot of initiatives to revise these rules, starting maybe with Nixon’s abandonment of the gold standard, which was a shock to the Bretton Woods institutions. Then some 20 years ago, there was a kind of theory that a country can engage in humanitarian interventions in violation of the sovereignty of states. More recently, you see the US withdraw from the Paris Agreement, Iranian nuclear deal, and UNESCO. Some even propose that the US should withdraw from the WTO. I don’t know whether this will happen and how far the US will go. If we look at all these historical records, maybe the name “revisionist country” is more suitable for the US than for China.

 

有人认为，随着中国的发展，中国正试图挑战美国的国际地位和主导权，因此中美已经而且不应在同一条船上。我认为这是对中国发展意图的误解误判。中共十九大提出中国特色社会主义进入新时代。美国有人担心，中国的新时代是否意味着美国时代的终结？甚至一些非常严肃的学者也向我提出这个问题。我很尊重这些学者，其中包括哈佛大学的格雷厄姆﹒艾利森教授。我曾同他多次长谈。我认为他的书《注定一战：中美能否避免修昔底德陷阱？》很大程度上被误读了。他并非主张所谓的“修昔底德陷阱”，而是认为中美应当避免这个陷阱。

Some people believe that the US and China are not in the same boat and should not be in the same boat, because as China develops, it will try to challenge the position of the US and its dominance in the world. But I don’t think this is a correct interpretation of China’s intention. Some people are worried about what China is saying, such as China entering a new era of development. Some are scared by the term “new era”. I have met with some very serious American scholars who asked me this question-does China’s new era mean the end of the American era? I have full respect to those serious scholars, including Graham Allison, with whom I had long conversations. I think his book to a large extent has been misinterpreted. He was not advocating for the so-called Thucydides Trap. He was saying that we could avoid this trap.

 

对于中国的目标和意图，外界有不少误解和误读。我们所说的新时代是指中国的发展进入了一个新阶段，面临的主要矛盾是人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分发展之间的矛盾。同时，中国的发展离不开开放的环境，不能关上门搞发展。但是，这个新时代主要是着眼于中国自身发展，而不是要谋求全球主导地位。

There are many misunderstandings and misinterpretations about China’s goals and intentions. What we mean by this new era is that China has entered a new stage of development, with the major challenge being to meet the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life and address unbalanced and inadequate development. Of course, China will have to develop itself in an open environment. We cannot close our door. But this new era is mainly for China’s own development, not for global dominance.

 

还有人认为，过去这些年中美关系特别是经贸关系导致美国“满盘皆输”、中国“赢者通吃”，因此中美已经而且不应在同一条船上。这种看法再次背离了事实。中美经贸关系是相互依存、互利共赢的。我们不应过多关注贸易赤字，因为赤字背后有很多结构性原因。此外，贸易顺差不能代表赢，贸易逆差也不意味着输。在座的各位比我更懂经济学。回顾一下全球经济发展史，过去20年，人类社会创造并积累了更多的财富。同时，包括中美在内的许多国家中，也有一些人的生活并未得到改善，甚至变得更糟。这对我们所有人来说都是严峻的挑战。但这并非贸易的错，而是包括财富分配在内的国内经济和社会政策问题。我们应该努力照顾这些弱势群体，诿过于人或归咎于贸易于事无补。

There are people who believe that over the years of our relations, especially economic and trade relations, the US has got all losses, and China got all gains. This is, once again, not in line with realities. Our economic and trade relations are interdependent and mutually beneficial.  We should not focus so much on the trade deficit, because there are a lot of structural reasons behind this deficit. Moreover, trade deficit does not mean all losses to the country that has deficit. And surplus does not mean all gains to the country that has surplus. I think you are better economists than me. If we look at the history of the global economy, we, the international community or the human race, have been able to generate much more wealth over the last 20 years or so.  But at the same time, there are groups of people, not only in the US, but also in other countries, including China, whose lives are not better off, with some being even worse off. This is a real and serious challenge to all of us. But this is not an issue of foreign trade, but rather an issue of domestic economic and social policy, including the distribution of wealth. How can we take care of these vulnerable groups? It will not help anybody to put the blame on other countries or on foreign trade.

 

那些鼓吹中美不在同一条船上，两国应该坐不同的船，甚至会迎头相撞的观点缺乏事实依据，有百害而无一益。不幸的是，一些人就是想要搅乱中美关系，他们扭曲中美经贸关系的真实情况，甚至试图在台湾和其它涉及中国主权和领土完整的问题上玩火。这十分危险，我们必须对此保持高度警惕。

For those arguments that we are in different boats, should ride in different boats, or even have a head-on collision, they are not supported by facts. It does not serve the good of anyone. Unfortunately, there are those who are trying to rock the boat. For instance, they are painting a distorting picture of our economic and trade relations. Some of them have even gone further by playing fire on issues of Taiwan and others that concern China’s territorial integrity. These are very dangerous developments. We have to be very careful about it.

 

我相信，中美依然在同一条船上，两国面临的共同挑战是如何引领中美关系穿越不确定和未知水域，更好地造福两国和世界。希望今天的对话能为两国政府制定务实、建设性、有利于中美双方的政策建言献策。

I still believe that our two countries remain in the same boat. The common challenge is to navigate this boat through the uncertainties or uncharted waters, for the benefits of both our countries, and for the entire world. Hopefully dialogues like what we have today will help the two governments to develop policies that are pragmatic, constructive, and beneficial for both countries.