China’s 2060 Carbon Neutrality Target: Opportunities and Challenges

2060碳中和目标为中国带来多重机遇和挑战

Meeting the target could improve public health, spark technological innovation and create new economic opportunities, writes Ryna Cui

中国雄心勃勃的碳中和目标为国内深度环境治理、绿色经济复苏，乃至技术和产业升级都提供了全新机遇，而要想收获这多重愿景的果实，行动宜早不宜迟。马里兰大学崔宜筠撰文分析。

In late September, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases set its first long-term climate goal. China’s announcement that it would target carbon neutrality by 2060 elicited a huge response. Global efforts on climate change have faced setbacks, including the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement and the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on the world economy. For China to take the initiative and set this target will inject new stimulus into the global response to climate change and boost ambition on emissions cuts. It is an important step towards a 1.5C warming target.

中国，作为全球最大的温室气体排放国，9月下旬在联合国大会上首次明确提出了长期气候目标——努力争取在2060年以前实现碳中和。这一目标的宣布在国内外立刻引起了强烈反响。当前，全球应对气候变化的进程频频受阻，先有美国联邦政府退出《巴黎协定》，后有新冠疫情对全球经济的巨大冲击。在这样的关键时刻，中国自主提出“2060碳中和”目标，无疑为全球应对气候变化、提高减排雄心注入了一针强心剂，使全球向控制温升1.5度目标迈进了一步。

China’s energy system and economy are currently reliant on coal. In four decades, how can China transition from being the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases to carbon neutrality? What will this mean for China? It is crucial to make one thing clear: carbon neutrality is not just about climate change – decarbonisation will deliver unprecedented and seismic changes. The impacts and the benefits will be far-reaching and sustained for economic growth, technological advances, public health, new employment and the environment. China is demonstrating it has the determination to pursue a new mode of economic growth and development.

然而，今天的中国仍然运转在以煤炭为基础的能源系统和经济结构上。未来的40年，中国将如何实现从碳排放全球最高到零碳的转变？实现零碳对中国自身又意味着什么？这里，我们要明确最重要的一点是：零碳经济的意义远远不止停留在应对全球气候变化——未来40年内的脱碳，将给中国社会本身带来前所未有、翻天覆地的变革。这些影响和收益是广泛、深远且持久的，涉及到经济发展、技术进步、健康与民生、生态环境等各个领域。因此，这一目标的提出，也体现了中国对自身未来的发展模式“不破不立”的决心。

It’s not just about climate change

不只是应对气候变化

Energy and economic transitions are essential for the response to climate change but they are also necessary to achieve the country’s mid- to long-term vision of a “Beautiful China”, and will aid a post-pandemic “green recovery”. Also, these changes will create new opportunities for long-term growth through technological and industrial upgrades.

能源系统以及经济结构的转型，不仅是应对气候变化的必然选择，也是通往“美丽中国”中长期愿景的必经之路，有助于实现新冠疫情之后的“绿色经济复苏”，并通过带动技术和产业升级，引领经济长期增长。

The past five to ten years have seen China make huge progress in tackling local air pollution. Controls on coal consumption and air pollutant emissions’ through end-of-pipe controls in the power,  industry and building sectors have been effective approaches. This has demonstrated the strong synergies between decarbonisation and improving air quality. However, China has a long way to go before it hits the WHO air quality target of an annual average PM_2.5 level of 10 micrograms per cubic metre, and the room for continued improvements through end-of-pipe controls is limited. A deep transformation of the energy system through a combination of decarbonising power generation, electrifying end-use sectors, and switching to low-carbon fuels will not just generate health co-benefits but is actually essential for long-term air quality improvements, better public health and the country’s Beautiful China vision.

首先，在过去的五到十年间，中国在空气污染治理方面取得了长足的进展。其中对煤炭消费在电力、工业以及民用部门的控制和污染治理是最为重要的手段之一。这也证明了脱碳和提高空气质量之间重要的协同效应。但要实现世界卫生组织空气质量准则目标，即达到PM_2.5年平均浓度低于10微克每平方米，中国还有一段很长的路要走。然而，通过末端污染物控制技术进一步减少空气污染的空间将变得越发有限。因此，通过电力脱碳、终端用能电气化，以及低碳燃料转化完成能源系统的彻底转型，已不仅仅是可以与环境治理相协同，而是长期提升空气质量和公共健康，实现“美丽中国”愿景的必经之路。

Besides, the green economy has boomed globally over the last decade, with sustained and rapid falls in the cost of solar, wind and energy storage technologies. China has been a main player in the global green industry and has made significant contributions to those cost reductions. China is now a global leader in renewable energy investments and installations, as well as in the manufacturing and deployment of electric vehicles.

其次，近十年来，绿色经济产业在全球范围内迅速发展。太阳能、风能以及储能技术的成本持续、快速下降。中国不仅大力发展绿色产业，为技术成本的大幅下降做出了巨大贡献，并且在可再生能源投资、应用，以及电动汽车的生产、消费等方面均处在全球领先位置。

All countries are calling for a green post-pandemic recovery. And following on from rapid growth in fields such as information technology and artificial intelligence, it is inevitable that cleaner, safer and cheaper renewable energy will replace traditional fossil-fuel energy. Similarly, a new model of economic growth that is more sustainable and environmentally friendly will replace the traditional energy-intensive, polluting and resource-intensive growth.

疫情过后，各个国家都在倡导和追求绿色经济复苏。随着数字、信息以及人工智能等高科技领域的飞速发展，与之匹配的能源技术和系统必然要淘汰传统的化石燃料，迅速转向更清洁、更安全、更便宜的可再生能源。而与之匹配的经济发展模式也必然淘汰高能耗、高污染、资源密集型的增长，迅速转向可持续的发展道路。

Achieving carbon neutrality will be of strategic significance for China’s technological and economic development, bolstering the country’s leadership in a changing global economy that is climate- and environment-friendly. Besides the relatively mature sectors like solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles, these new technologies and industries also include hydrogen in transportation and industry, emissions technologies such as carbon removal, and smart power grids. These green industries will invigorate China’s economic growth and create new high-quality jobs.

实现零碳转型，对中国科技创新和经济发展具有重要的战略意义，不仅有助于提升中国在新科技领域的全球领导力，也有助于取得在未来环境气候友好型新经济中的世界领导地位，这些技术和产业除了发展相对成熟的太阳能、风能发电以及电池、电动汽车等，还包括氢能在工业和交通部门的应用，二氧化碳移除等负排放技术，以及灵活、安全、稳定的现代化智能电网系统等。发展新型绿色产业，还可以为中国的经济增长注入新的活力，为人民带来新的、高质量的就业岗位。

 

How should it be done?

变革该如何发生？

This is an historic undertaking. However, how China’s carbon neutrality goal is defined and achieved will impact global success in meeting the 1.5C warming target.

中国提出2060碳中和目标，迈出了历史性的一步。然而，如何具体定义这一目标，以及通过什么样的路径实现这一目标，都将直接影响到全球“温升1.5度”目标的达成。

At the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability, we think that while there is some flexibility in how the 2060 goal can be reached, all the pathways will need to rely on five strategies: sustainable demand, decarbonising electricity generation, electrifying end-use, fuel switching, and approaches to achieve negative emissions.

笔者所在的马里兰大学全球可持续发展中心认为，尽管实现“2060碳中和”目标的路径具有一定的灵活性，但它势必需要建立在五项重要策略的基础上，它们包括：可持续的能源消费、电力部门脱碳、终端用能部门电气化、非电力低碳燃料转化，以及利用负排放手段。

But uncertainties remain. These include non-CO₂ greenhouse gases – whether they are covered by the target, and the near-term roadmaps – in particular the timing of peaking carbon emissions, which affects whether the overall carbon budget can remain in line with the 1.5C temperature goal.

其中依然存在不确定性，这包括“2060目标”是否涵盖非二氧化碳温室气体的减排，以及短期行动路线，特别是碳排放事实上达峰的时间，是否可以确保排放总量不超出与“温升1.5度”目标相一致的碳预算（carbon budget）。

Early action is needed not just to keep that global 1.5C warming target within reach. More importantly, actions today will affect the speed and challenge of China’s post-peaking changes, and the costs to achieve them.

尽早行动的重要性不仅体现在达成全球气候目标，更重要的是直接影响到中国达峰后的转变速度和行动难度，以及所需付出的社会代价。

An early peaking of carbon emissions will help reduce the risk of stranded assets and lower the costs of future changes. A “no new coal” strategy is particularly important to ensure a structured coal power phase-out by 2050. Currently, China has 1,050 gigawatts (GW) of coal power capacity – more than the rest of the world combined. This number is likely to increase during the 14th Five Year Plan period (2021-2025), as approximately 150 GW of new coal is already approved or under construction. Continued build of large, expensive and long-lasting coal power infrastructure will increase the risks of asset stranding – not only will these new investments become stranded, but the retirement of existing plants will be accelerated, raising the economic, financial and social challenges of the coal phase-out.

碳排放尽早达峰有助于降低出现搁浅资产的风险，并有效节约未来转型的经济成本。这其中，立刻采取“不新增燃煤电厂”的策略对煤电在2050年之前实现有序退出尤为重要。目前，中国的煤电装机接近10.5亿千瓦（1050吉瓦），列全球第一位，且大于其他所有国家煤电装机的总和。并且，这一数字在“十四五”期间（2021—2025）很可能继续增长——仍有1.5亿千瓦（150吉瓦）左右的煤电项目正在建设或尚未开工但已获得核准。然而，继续投资建设新的、大规模、高投资、长寿命的煤电项目，不仅会造成这些投资的快速搁浅，还会进一步加快现有电厂的淘汰速度，大大增加煤电退出的经济、金融和社会影响。

The benefits and impacts of these changes will be unevenly distributed across sectors, regions and groups. The net-zero transition will have a large impact on the fossil fuel industry – in particular the coal-dependent sectors along the entire supply chain, including mining, transportation, coal power, coal chemicals and other industries. This will be concentrated in regions where the economy and employment have been relying heavily on coal, affecting local economy, tax revenue and social benefits. Already, job losses in coal mining have occurred in traditional coal-reliant provinces such as Henan and Shanxi, driven by non-climate factors, such as the improvement in productivity through mechanisation, the elimination of small, inefficient coal mines, and industrial upgrading. As a coal phase-out is inevitable, coal jobs will also disappear. To make sure of a “just transition” with coal phase-out, policies are needed to help those affected and create opportunities for new growth models for these regions. Again, the sooner this is done, the better.

我们也必须看到，转型的收益和冲击在行业、地区、人群上的分布不均衡。传统的化石燃料行业，特别是煤炭的上下游行业——包括开采、运输、煤电、煤化工等，在零碳转型中将受到巨大的冲击。而且，这些冲击将集中在严重依附煤炭经济和就业的地区，影响地方经济、财政和社会福祉。另一方面，由于机械化发展、淘汰落后产能和产业升级等原因，煤炭行业的就业问题已经广泛出现在河南、山西等传统煤炭工业省份。煤炭退出历史舞台是必然，而它所承载的工作机会也将随之消失。因此，利用政策手段妥善安置煤炭工人或保证他们的再就业，为这些地区寻找新的发展模式，是必然的长期发展需要。这些工作的开展，同样宜早不宜迟。

The 2060 carbon neutrality target sketches out a new vision for China’s mid- to long-term development: a stronger nation in terms of public health and safety, the environment, technological innovation, economic development and social welfare. And China is today at a critical point to start making these changes – this journey of a thousand miles must start with a single step. With the 14th Five Year Plan period imminent, China needs to produce a clear and detailed near-term action plan to lay a solid foundation towards its 2060 target.

“2060碳中和目标”描绘了中国中长期发展的美好愿景——从健康安全、生态环境、科技进步、经济发展、社会福祉等各个方面提升国家实力。而今天的中国，正处在转型的绝佳时期。千里之行，始于足下。在即将迈入第十四个五年计划的关键时刻，中国应当进一步制定明确详尽的短期行动路线图，为2060年实现零碳目标打下坚实基础。

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