No One Knows How Many People Live in North Macedonia

没有人知道北马其顿究竟有多少人

Which makes planning hard for the government

这使得政府难以制定计划

It is an odd admission for the boss of a national statistical agency. Not only are many of his numbers wrong, says Apostol Simovski, head of North Macedonia’s statistical office, but he has no idea what the right ones might be. Officially, there are 2.08m people in his country. In fact, he says: “I am afraid there are no more than 1.5m, but I cannot prove it.”

对于一个国家的统计机构负责人来说，这样坦言显得有些奇怪。据北马其顿统计局局长阿普尔斯托尔·西莫夫斯基称，不仅他手中的许多数据是错误的，而且他甚至都不知道真实的数据是多少。据官方数据显示，该国拥有208万人口。但实际上，他说：“我估计只有不到150万，但我没办法证明究竟是多少。”

Countless calculations – income per head, number of bathtubs per head – depend on knowing how many heads there are. If Mr Simovski is right and there are 27.5% fewer people in North Macedonia than officially estimated, then GDP per head, among other things, will be much higher. However, the true population may be between 1.6m and 1.8m, says Izet Zeqiri, an economist. Until there is a census, no one will know.

不尽其数的数据统计（例如人均收入、人均浴缸数）都建立在了解人口数量的基础上。如果正如西莫夫斯基所言，北马其顿真实人口要比官方估计的少27.5%，那么该国人均GDP以及其他各项数据都将比现在高得多。不过，经济学家伊泽特·泽基里认为，该国实际人口可能在160万至180万之间。但在进行人口普查之前，没有人知道北马其顿究竟有多少人口。

The last count was in 2002. An attempt to update it in 2011 turned into a fiasco. Nationalist Macedonian politicians and those from the country’s Albanian minority encouraged their supporters to list lots of family members who lived abroad. When officials realised that the totals would be fantastical, the process was aborted.

北马其顿最近的一次人口普查是在2002年。2011年，该国试图开展新一轮的人口普查，但最终以失败告终。马其顿民族主义政客以及该国阿尔巴尼亚少数民族政客鼓励他们的支持者在上报人口数量时将侨居国外的亲朋好友也列入其中。当官员们意识到由此将得到一个不切实际的人口总数时，此次人口普查随即中止。

A new census was planned for April this year. However, when a snap election was called, the census was postponed. And the election itself was then postponed because of covid-19. As a result, says Verica Janeska, an economist, the government cannot make well-informed economic decisions.

北马其顿原计划于今年4月开展新一轮的人口普查。然而，由于总统大选的提前，人口普查便耽搁下来。但总统大选也由于新冠肺炎疫情的爆发而被推迟。经济学家韦里卡·简斯卡说道，这样一来，政府将无法做出切实有效的经济决策。

In 2019, for the first time in history, more Macedonians died than were born. Births and deaths, at least, are accurately counted. Harder to gauge are the numbers who move abroad to work. Some 81,000 have Bulgarian passports.

2019年，北马其顿死亡人数首次超过了出生人数。至少，出生及死亡人数还能够准确统计。难以统计的是出国务工人员的数量。大约有8.1万北马其顿人持有保加利亚护照。

This means they can work easily and legally in the EU. It also means they don’t show up as Macedonians on any foreign database. Unemployment used to be a big problem. Now labour shortages are emerging as a bigger one.

这意味着他们能够轻易且合法地在欧盟各国找到工作。同时这也意味着，他们不会以北马其顿人的身份出现在国外任何一个数据库中。失业曾是北马其顿面临的一大难题。而如今，劳动力短缺更成问题。

This is a problem across the Balkans, but in all Europe only North Macedonia and Ukraine, which last held a census in 2001, share the honour of not knowing even roughly how many people they have.

整个巴尔干半岛都面临着劳动力短缺的问题，但在整个欧洲，只有北马其顿和乌克兰（上一次人口普查是在2001年）不知道自己究竟有多少人口。

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