Robots May Well Take Your Job – Eventually

最终，机器人很可能会夺走你的工作

Innovators are not always welcome. In 1589 William Lee made his way to the English court, hoping to be granted a patent for his invention, a knitting machine. Queen Elizabeth I turned him down: “Consider thou what the invention could do to my poor subjects,” she enjoined. “It would assuredly bring to them ruin by depriving them of employment.”

创新者并不总是受欢迎。1589年，威廉·李（William Lee）来到英国法院，希望自己发明的针织机能获得专利。女王伊丽莎白一世拒绝了他。“你想想看，这项发明对我可怜的臣民会有什么影响，”她告诫道，“这将剥夺他们的工作机会，定然会给他们带来灭顶之灾。”

The fears of Good Queen Bess have echoed down the centuries – from the Luddites, who smashed textile machinery in the early 19th century, to John F. Kennedy, who warned of the dangers of automation during his presidential campaign of 1960. In the 21st century the concerns have switched to robots and artificial intelligence (AI); 30% of American workers believe their jobs are likely to be replaced by robots and computers in their lifetime.

从19世纪早期砸毁织布机的卢德派分子，到1960年在竞选总统期间警告自动化的威胁的约翰·肯尼迪，几个世纪以来，“贤明女王”的忧惧一直在回响。21世纪，人们的关切点已经转向了机器人和人工智能（AI）；30%的美国工人认为自己有生之年很可能会被机器人和计算机取代。

Daniel Susskind has written about this issue before in “The Future of the Professions”, co-authored with his father, Richard. That book focused on the threat posed by machine-learning to doctors, lawyers and the like. His new tome is a much broader look at the economic and social consequences of automation.

丹尼尔·萨斯坎德（Daniel Susskind）曾在与父亲理查德（Richard）合著的《专业人士的未来》（The Future of the Professions）中谈到这个问题。这本书着重讨论机器学习对医生和律师等职业的威胁。他的新书视角广泛得多，探讨了自动化对经济和社会整体的影响。

In the past the relationship between machine and human labour has been driven by two factors: the substituting effect, which caused people to lose jobs, and the complementing effect, which allowed employees to do their work more productively. The author worries that, in the future, the substituting effect will dominate. Advances in AI have been so rapid that machines will eventually be better than people at most activities, he says, and so will be the “default choice” for performing them. A few highly paid humans will still be employed, but the rest will either struggle to find work or fall into the “precariat”, stuck in jobs that are not just poorly paid but unstable and stressful.

过去，机器和人类劳动力之间的关系由两个因素驱动：一是导致人们失业的替代效应，一是让员工提高效率的互补效应。作者担心，在未来，替代效应将占主导。他认为，人工智能的进步如此之快，以至于机器最终将在大多数活动上都优于人类，因此应用人工智能将是“默认选择”。少数高收入人群仍然会有工作，但其余的人要么很难找到工作，要么沦为“朝不保夕族”，困在薪水低、不稳定、压力大的岗位上。

 

Mr Susskind thinks that this scenario will require a change in political thinking. Part of his answer would be a “conditional basic income”, paid by the government and financed by taxes on the better-off. Rather than being universal, this would come with provisos: recipients would have to make some contribution to society, such as providing social care or teaching children. Given all the superabundant free time, societies will also need a more coherent leisure policy, coaxing people away from their smartphones and televisions.

萨斯坎德认为，这种情况需要政治思维的转变。他的解决方案包括“有条件的基本收入”，由政府支付并由富人的纳税来资助。它不是普遍的，而是包含附加条件：受助者必须对社会做出一些贡献，例如提供社会照护或教育儿童。鉴于有如此多的闲暇时间，社会也需要一个更清晰连贯的休闲政策，诱导人们远离智能手机和电视机。

This gloomy view of the impact of technology is plausible. But so is a more optimistic outlook, as the economist Roger Bootle showed in “The AI Economy: Work, Wealth and Welfare in the Robot Age”, published last year. Mr Bootle argued that AI and robotics would improve productivity and economic growth, and release people from performing the most humdrum tasks. As for employment, there will always be demand for services with the human touch, just as there is an appetite for “artisanal” loaves as well as sliced white bread.

这种对技术影响的悲观论调似乎言之有理。但是，正如经济学家罗杰·布特尔（Roger Bootle）在去年出版的《人工智能经济：机器人时代的工作、财富和福利》（The AI Economy: Work, Wealth and Welfare in the Robot Age）中所展示的那样，更为乐观的观点同样显得合情合理。布特尔认为，人工智能和机器人技术将提高生产率和刺激经济增长，并把人们从最单调的工作中解放出来。至于就业问题，人们对人性化服务的需求总是存在的，就像除了吃切片方包，他们也要吃“手工”面包。

Which of these visions is right? Recent history has not vindicated either the optimists or the pessimists. Employment has surged in both America and Britain, suggesting that technology has not led to widespread labour replacement. On the other hand, growth in productivity has consistently been extremely disappointing, indicating that technology is not yielding the hoped-for increases in prosperity. This record is a shaky basis on which to make forecasts. Mr Susskind wisely hedges his bets, declaring that “in all likelihood, there will be enough work for humans to do for a while yet.” The problem, he says, lies in the long run.

那么，种种预测中哪个是正确的呢？近期的历史并没有证明乐观主义者和悲观主义者孰是孰非。美国和英国的就业都在激增，这表明技术还没有导致广泛的劳动力替代。另一方面，生产率的增长一直都极其令人失望，表明技术并没有带来人们所希望的繁荣发展。这段历史并没有给预测提供足够可靠的基础。萨斯坎德明智地两边下注，宣称“在一段时间内，人类十之八九仍然有足够的工作可做”，问题在于长期，他说。

Perhaps. The truth is that, seductive as prognostications like Mr Susskind’s may be, it is impossible to be sure whether the latest advances will in the end have mainly benign or malign economic effects. Books like his are a useful summary of the current debate on an important subject. But they are not crystal balls.

也许吧。事实是，虽然像萨斯坎德这样的预言可能很诱人，但我们无法确定，这些最新的进展最终带来的经济影响大体上是良性还是恶性的。与他的著作类似的书籍是对围绕当前这个重要议题的争论的有益总结，但它们不是水晶球。

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