A Mega-deal and New Technology May Sustain an Enduring Oligopoly

巨型并购和新技术可能让一家经久不衰的寡头屹立不倒

Modern cities owe their shape to two 19th-century revolutions in personal transportation. For urban sprawl, blame the car. The skyscrapers that shape many of the world’s most recognisable cityscapes would not exist without fast and safe lifts. Whereas the four biggest carmakers sell two-fifths of road vehicles, liftmakers have the market sewn up far more tightly. The top four firms provide over two-thirds of all lifts. More concentration may be arriving shortly.

十九世纪发生的两次个人运输工具革命塑造了现代城市的形态。城市四处扩张依靠的是汽车。而如果没有安全快速的电梯，世界许多城市的标志性景观也不会存在。如今道路上的车辆有五分之二产自全球四大汽车制造商，而电梯行业的市场集中度还要高得多。前四大公司提供了全球超过三分之二的电梯。这个市场很快可能还会变得更加集中。

The potential for consolidation comes courtesy of Thyssenkrupp. The struggling German industrial conglomerate needs to raise money as it restructures radically after years of dwindling profits and strategic missteps. Elevator Technology (ET), its lift business, could be worth €15bn-18bn ($17bn-20bn), roughly equivalent to Thyssenkrupp’s market value (including net debt). It plans to sell either a stake in the business or the whole thing.

进一步整合的前景要归因于蒂森克虏伯（Thyssenkrupp）。这家陷入困境的德国工业集团在经历了多年的盈利萎缩和战略失误后，正在彻底重组，因而需要筹集资金。其电梯业务蒂森克虏伯电梯（Elevator Technology，以下简称ET）的价值可能在150亿至180亿欧元（170亿至200亿美元）之间，与蒂森克虏伯集团的市值（包括净债务在内）大致相当。集团计划出售该业务的部分或全部股权。

There are, it appears, plenty of takers willing to jump on Thyssenkrupp lifts. Groups that submitted bids before a deadline on November 8th are said to include some of the world’s biggest private-equity firms, such as 3G, Blackstone and Carlyle. Finland’s Kone, another lift-industry giant, has long coveted ET. Japan’s Hitachi is also likely to have put in a bid.

看起来有不少公司愿意搭乘蒂森克虏伯的电梯。据称，在11月8日截止日前提出报价的包括一些全球最大的私募股权公司，如3G、黑石集团（Blackstone）和凯雷集团（Carlyle）。另一电梯巨头芬兰通力（Kone）对ET觊觎已久。日本的日立公司很可能也出了价。

Whoever they turn out to be, the bidders are attracted by an industry that has more ups than downs. The global lift market was worth $73bn in 2018 and the share prices of lift companies have comfortably outperformed the capital-goods industry as a whole for years, according to Morgan Stanley, a bank. Lifts are a “great business”, explains Klas Bergelind of Citi, another bank, because half of all revenues are recurring. The cyclical business of selling and installing new lifts is complemented by a steady stream of income from maintaining and modernising existing lifts.

不管出价者究竟都有谁，它们看中的都是这个行业的上升期多过衰退期。摩根士丹利的数据显示，2018年全球电梯市场价值730亿美元，而多年来电梯公司的股价轻松超过资本产品行业的整体水平。花旗银行的克拉斯·贝格林德（Klas Bergelind）分析，电梯业是一门“好生意”，因为其总营收中有一半为经常性收入。除了销售和安装新电梯的周期性业务营收外，还有维护和升级现有电梯的稳定收入作为补充。

That part of the business looks poised to gain in importance. Citi expects annual sales of new lifts to grow by around 1% for the next few years. But that still leaves plenty that need maintenance, including the 900,000 or so installed in 2018, double the number a decade earlier. Over 60% of these were built in China, despite its cooling property boom.

后者看起来已变得越来越重要。花旗银行预计，未来几年，新电梯年销售额的增速将在1%左右。但仍有大量旧电梯需要维护，包括2018年安装的约90万台电梯，是十年前数字的两倍。其中超过60%是在中国安装的，尽管当地的房产热正在降温。

China’s vast servicing market may provide a long-term opportunity that helps the big liftmakers weather the global slowdown in new equipment sales. At the moment maintenance of a worldwide installed base of 16m lifts is a far less concentrated business, largely thanks to a bevy of small Chinese competitors. But as lifts become connected devices, bigger manufacturers could replicate their dominance in the market for new lifts. They have more money than smaller rivals to invest in technologies to diagnose problems remotely in real time, predict failures and prevent breakdowns.

中国广阔的电梯维护市场也许会提供一个长期机会，帮助大型制造商经受住全球新设备销售放缓的冲击。相比新电梯市场，目前全球1600万台已安装电梯的维护业务远没有那么集中，很大程度上是因为中国有一批小型竞争企业。但随着电梯变成联网设备，大型制造商可能会复制自己在新电梯市场上的主导地位。相比小型对手，它们拥有更充裕的资金来投资于新技术，实现实时远程诊断问题、预测及防范故障。

Which way will ET fall? A sale to a private-equity firm would quickly raise the cash Thyssenkrupp urgently needs. But it would yield none of the economies of scale that a tie-up with another liftmaker could produce. Hitachi, strong in its home market, will see this as its one opportunity to elevate itself into the global big league. And as Jefferies, another bank, observes, Otis and Schindler may not be content to “watch from the sidelines”.

ET将何去何从？若出售给私募股权公司，蒂森克虏伯将迅速筹集到急需的资金，但这无法形成与其他电梯制造商联合所产生的规模经济。在日本国内市场强势的日立会视收购ET为跻身全球电梯巨头行列的机会。而正如另一家投行杰富瑞（Jefferies）观察到的，奥的斯（Otis）和迅达（Schindler）也不大可能会安于“置身事外”。

The firm that has courted ET the longest is Kone. Together the pair would create a firm as towering as the skyscrapers their products make possible. The businesses are geographically complementary: ET is stronger in America, Kone does better in China. Combining their service networks, research and development and the like might save €1bn a year. But overlap in Europe will trouble competition authorities. Thyssenkrupp may prefer a deal with fewer potential regulatory complications.

通力向ET“示爱”的时间最久。如果两者联姻，缔造出的公司将有如其产品造就的摩天大楼那样一览众山小。两家公司在地理上互补：ET在美国实力较强，通力在中国更具优势。整合两者的服务网络及研发等资源，每年可能节省十亿欧元。但是它们在欧洲的业务有重叠，这将引起竞争管理机构的关注。蒂森克虏伯可能更愿意选择监管风险低的交易。

Bringing together the world’s two most innovative liftmakers would certainly lift architects’ spirits. ET is testing MULTI, a ropeless system that uses linear motors to allow its lifts to travel up, down and sideways. Kone has developed a carbon-fibre-composite cable that allows ever longer travel heights – and so taller structures. Together these two technologies could reshape the city once again.

世界最锐意创新的两大电梯制造商若连珠合璧，无疑会令建筑师们精神一振。ET正在测试运用线性电机使电梯上下和横向移动的无绳系统MULTI。通力已开发出一种碳纤维复合材料电缆，便于电梯运行更长的距离，建筑物因而也可冲击新高度。这两种技术结合起来，将再次令城市面貌焕发新姿。

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