Foreign Investment: What’s up?

外国投资：情况如何？

Brexit makes firms think twice

面对英国脱欧，企业三思而后行

Has the Brexit vote put foreign investors off Britain? Remainers point to cancelled plans by Japanese carmakers, American banks and others. But Leavers say Britain is more alluring than ever. Last month the country topped a ranking by EY, an accountant, of attractiveness for investors. Earlier this month Facebook chose London as its base for expanding its WhatsApp messaging service. Who is right?

英国脱欧公投是否已让外国投资者对英国望而却步？留欧派指出，日本汽车制造商、美国的银行等企业已纷纷取消了在英投资计划。但脱欧派却说英国比以往任何时候都更具吸引力。在安永会计师事务所上个月发布的对投资者吸引力排名中，英国位居榜首。本月稍早时，Facebook选择伦敦作为扩展其WhatsApp即时信息服务的大本营。两派到底孰是孰非？

Countries compete hard for foreign direct investment (FDI). When overseas firms enter a domestic market they tend to make it more competitive, which is good for consumers. And when they take over domestic businesses they often boost their productivity. That, in turn, raises wages.

各国在争取外国直接投资（FDI）方面竞争激烈。海外公司进入国内市场往往会加大国内市场的竞争，这对消费者来说是好事。海外公司收购国内企业通常会提高这些企业的生产率，进而提升工资水平。

The Leavers’ case appears strong. In 1995-2015 Britain attracted a tenth of global cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Since the referendum of 2016 the proportion has barely budged. Warren Buffett, the world’s most famous capitalist, recently told the Financial Times he was “ready to buy something in the UK tomorrow”. Low corporation tax and a stable legal system continue to draw business to Britain.

脱欧派的理由似乎很充分。1995年至2015年，英国吸引了全球十分之一的跨境并购。自2016年脱欧公投以来，这一比例几乎没有变化。全球最著名的资本投资家巴菲特近期对《金融时报》表示，他“很乐意来日在英国买点什么”。较低的公司税和稳定的法律体制依旧在吸引企业入驻英国。

A common counter-argument is that much of the inward FDI since the referendum has been little more than asset-stripping. Foreigners have taken advantage of a weak pound to buy British companies on the cheap and make off with their intellectual property, the argument goes. Yet even FDI in more concrete things, such as offices and research facilities, has risen since 2016.

一种常见的反面观点是，自公投以来，流入的外国直接投资中很多不过是资产拆卖。该观点认为，外国投资者趁英镑疲软之机低价收购英国公司并拿走它们的知识产权。然而，即便是对更具体的有形资产的外国直接投资，比如办公楼和研究设施，自2016年以来也有所上升。

So have investors brushed off Brexit? Not quite. Some industries have noticeably cooled on Britain. It was the top destination for cross-border mergers and acquisitions involving American tech firms in 2014-17. But in 2018 it tumbled to eighth place. In October the UK Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex University modelled a counterfactual Britain that had voted Remain, and found that the Leave vote had reduced inward FDI by a fifth.

那么，投资者对英国脱欧就无动于衷吗？并非完全如此。一些行业对英国的兴趣明显下降了。2014至2017年，英国是美国科技公司跨国并购的首选地。但在2018年却跌至第八位。去年10月，苏赛克斯大学（Sussex University）的英国贸易政策观察组织（UK Trade Policy Observatory）模拟了与现实相反的情形，也就是假设英国选择了留欧。对比后发现，脱欧的投票结果导致外国直接投资流入减少了五分之一。

Brexit affects domestic firms, too. In January Barclays bank received legal approval to move €190bn ($213bn) of assets to Dublin, fearing no-deal. The London School of Economics recently found the Brexit vote had caused a 12% rise in investment by British firms in the rest of the EU. That capital might otherwise have been used at home. FDI remains strong, but it would be stronger minus Brexit. And Britain has not even left yet.

脱欧也影响到了英国本土公司。今年1月，巴克莱银行取得合法审批，将1900亿欧元（2130亿美元）资产转移到都柏林，以防可能发生无协议脱欧。伦敦政治经济学院最近发现，脱欧投票导致英国公司在欧盟其他国家的投资增加了12%，而这些资金原本可能用于英国本土。外国直接投资依然强劲，但不脱欧的话会更强。再说这会儿英国都还没离开欧盟呢。

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