The World Bank: Malpass v Malpass

世界银行：马尔帕斯左右互搏

 

The new boss will find that the job is harder to do than it was to get

这位新行长的工作得来不难，做起来却不易

 

When he was nominated to lead the World Bank by President Donald Trump, David Malpass, a former Treasury official, faced no rival for the position. He was approved unanimously by the bank’s board, which represents its 189 member governments, and began work promptly earlier this month. The process could not have been easier. But stiffer resistance lies ahead. Chances are that nothing in the job will become him like the entering it.

 

美国前财政部官员戴维·马尔帕斯被总统特朗普提名为世界银行行长时，没有遇到任何竞争对手。代表189个成员国政府的世行董事会一致通过了对马尔帕斯的任命，他旋即于本月稍早时走马上任。整个过程毫不费力，但前路艰难。这份工作很可能是得来顺风顺水，做起来却诸事不顺。

 

The institution he now leads is dedicated to eradicating poverty and fighting inequality. By its estimates, 10% of the world’s population (736m people) lived below the global poverty line in 2015 and perhaps 8.6% did in 2018. It aims to lower that share to 3% by 2030.

 

他所领导的世行致力于消除贫困，对抗不平等。据世行估计，2015年全球有10%的人口（7.36亿人）生活在全球贫困线以下，2018年的数字可能是8.6%。世行的目标是到2030年将这一比例降至3%。

 

Because poverty is falling quickly in India and Bangladesh, most of the people living so uncomfortably now reside in sub-Saharan Africa, especially Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. They are harder to reach, concentrated in “fragile” regions, afflicted by violence. They would benefit greatly from sound economic policies and rapid GDP growth. But in these settings, the bank cannot always count on governments using its money and advice well. It therefore tends to back tightly monitored projects that benefit the poor directly. A big initiative in Congo, for example, helps women giving birth and vaccinates children against tuberculosis, hepatitis B and other diseases.

 

由于印度和孟加拉国的贫困程度正在迅速减轻，现在大多数生活在贫困线以下的人都居住在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，特别是尼日利亚和刚果（金）。他们集中在暴力肆虐的“脆弱”地区，扶贫举措难以触及。健全的经济政策和快速的GDP增长能让这些贫困人口受益匪浅。但在这些地区，世行没法总是指望当地政府能妥善利用其资金和建议。因此，它倾向于资助那些它能严密监控、直接惠及穷人的项目。例如世行在刚果（金）实施的一项重大举措就是帮助妇女安全分娩，以及为儿童接种结核病、乙肝等疾病的疫苗。

 

Mr Malpass no doubt applauds such efforts. But his animating passions lie elsewhere. He wants the bank to focus on promoting economic growth: “breakthroughs that materially raise median incomes”, as he wrote in the Financial Times shortly after his nomination. Bank insiders say he has shown a close interest in the world’s ten biggest emerging markets. Understanding their paths to growth may yield lessons for others. And improving their growth prospects would benefit both their own large populations and the world economy, in which they now weigh heavily.

 

马尔帕斯无疑对此类项目表示赞赏。但他的工作热情不在于此。他希望世行专注于促进经济增长，要像他在被提名后不久在《金融时报》撰文所写的那样，实施“可切实提高收入中位数的突破性举措”。世行内部人士表示，他对全球十大新兴市场表现出浓厚兴趣。了解它们的发展道路或许能为其他发展中国家提供经验。另外，这些新兴市场如今在世界经济中占有重要地位，改善它们的增长前景会令其自身的庞大人口和世界经济双双受益。

 

The bank’s influence on such countries is small. But the potential gains are so great that even a small nudge can yield a magnificent return. Lant Pritchett of Harvard University cites the example of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. This think-tank, based in Delhi, got started in the early 1980s with the help of $857,000 from the Ford Foundation (almost $3m measured using 2005 purchasing-power-parity rates). Mr Pritchett reckons that its research helped shape India’s successful response to its balance-of-payments crisis in 1991. Those reforms, in turn, set the stage for faster growth in a country hosting a sixth of humanity. Mr Pritchett has calculated that the 1991 response and later reforms added $3.6trn to India’s output from 1991 to 2010. Even if Ford’s money increased the chances of reform by only 1%, that represents a 12,000-fold return on its investment (ignoring the lag between outlay and the reforms).

 

世行对这些国家的影响很小。但由于潜在效益巨大，即使是轻微的推动也能产生可观的回报。哈佛大学的兰特·普里切特以印度国际经济关系研究委员会为例来说明这一点。这个智库位于德里，上世纪80年代初由福特基金会出资85.7万美元（按2005年购买力平价计算接近300万美元）成立。普里切特认为，该委员会的研究在1991年帮助印度成功应对了国际收支危机。而当时的改革又为这个人口占全球六分之一的国家奠定了快速增长的基础。据普里切特计算，1991年的应对措施及后来的改革在1991年到2010年之间让印度的经济产出增加了3.6万亿美元。即使福特基金会的资助仅令发起改革的可能性提高了1%，它的投资回报高达1.2万倍（忽略资金支出和改革之间的时间差）。

 

But this kind of thinking is out of fashion at the bank. The ten largest emerging markets are not necessarily its biggest clients. Nor, India aside, are they where many of the world’s poorest people live. Improving median incomes in these ten would not necessarily reduce poverty in Nigeria or Congo. Nor would it ensure that the incomes of the bottom 40% rise faster than the rest (which is one way the bank monitors its fight against inequality). Mr Malpass’s instincts may therefore fail to mesh with the bank’s institutional priorities.

 

但这样的想法在世行已经过时。十大新兴市场不一定是世行最大的客户。除了印度之外，它们也不是全球贫困人口聚集的地方。提高这十个国家的收入中位数并不一定能减少尼日利亚或刚果（金）的贫困人口，也不能确保底层40%人口的收入增速超过其他人群（这是世行监测其抗击不平等的努力的一种方式）。因此，马尔帕斯的直觉与世行的工作重点可能并不匹配。

 

His interest in engaging with the world’s big emerging markets also sits uneasily with his other preoccupation: disengaging from the biggest emerging market of all. In his previous role at America’s Treasury he expressed worries about China’s “inroads” into the multilateral lenders. America agreed to an increase in the World Bank’s capital only on condition that in future it devoted a smaller share of its lending to countries as prosperous as China, charged them higher interest rates and encouraged them to “graduate” out of World Bank borrowing altogether.

 

他对加强与各大新兴市场联系的兴趣也与他十分关心的另一个问题格格不入：摆脱新兴市场中最大的那一个。在美国财政部工作期间，他表达了对中国“侵占”多边贷款机构资源的担忧。美国同意对世行增加注资，但条件是未来世行缩减对中国这样的繁荣国家的贷款，调高对它们的利率，促使它们彻底“毕业”，不再享受世行的优惠贷款。

 

China’s income per person already exceeds the threshold for graduation ($6,795 in 2017). But it is not alone: 31 other eligible clients exceed that level, including some large countries with considerable clout (Brazil, Mexico, Turkey). Efforts to usher them off the bank’s books would meet insurmountable opposition. China and its peers will instead insist they do not meet the bank’s vaguer criteria for graduation, which include progress in institution-building. Thus China’s backers will highlight its shortcomings even as its critics, like Mr Malpass, tout its accomplishments.

 

中国的人均收入已超出世行的“毕业线”（2017年的标准为6795美元）。但这种情况不独中国一家：还有31个贷款国的人均收入超过了这条线，其中包括一些具有相当影响力的大国（巴西、墨西哥、土耳其）。将它们从世行的优惠贷款名单中剔除将遭遇巨大的阻力。但世行的毕业标准划分模糊（其中包括制度建设的进展），中国及类似国家会坚称自己未达到标准。因此，在马尔帕斯这样的批评者认为中国成就巨大之时，中国的支持者会强调它的不足。

 

The duties Mr Malpass inherits from his predecessor, Jim Yong Kim, are lighter than those bequeathed to previous presidents. Mr Kim’s managerial failings prompted the bank to appoint a capable chief executive, Kristalina Georgieva, to handle day-to-day operations. By some estimates, she does 75-80% of the job that fell to previous presidents. Mr Malpass may therefore struggle to impose himself on the bank. Some powerful constituencies stand in opposition to his ideas – and some of his ideas stand in tension with each other.

 

相比历任世行行长，马尔帕斯从前任金墉那里接过来的担子要轻一些。金墉的管理失误促使世行任命了一位能力很强的首席执行官克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃来负责日常运营。有人估计，她承担了75%到80%以往由行长主管的工作。因此，马尔帕斯可能很难将自己的观点加诸于世行。一些强大的成员国反对他的观点——而他自己的一些想法也在左右互搏。

英文、中文版本下载：http://www.yingyushijie.com/shop/source/detail/id/1286.html