为亚洲经济的持续成功提供政策保障

Policies to Ensure Asia’s Sustained Economic Success

 

国际货币基金组织副总裁 张涛

Zhang Tao, IMF Deputy Managing Director

 

亚洲货币政策论坛

Asian Monetary Policy Forum

 

2018年5月25日，新加坡

Singapore, May 25, 2018

 

女士们、先生们，早上好。我很高兴来到新加坡，参加第五届亚洲货币政策论坛。

 

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. It is my honor to be in Singapore for the fifth annual MAS Asian Monetary Policy Forum.

 

在当前全球经济走强的背景下，我想重点谈谈国际货币基金组织对亚洲当前所面临重要经济问题的一些看法。昨晚，美国前财政部长蒂莫西·盖特纳和我们探讨了关于全球金融危机的一些经验和教训。

 

I would like to focus on the Fund’s view of key economic issues facing Asia at this moment of global economic strength. We heard last night from Tim Geithner about the lessons of the global financial crisis.

 

关于今天的讨论，我想着重谈谈应从危机中吸取的一条关键经验：“成功不会从天而降，需要时刻保持警惕”。实际上，自危机发生以来，国际货币基金组织一直都在强调增强风险抵御能力的重要性，把它作为工作的重中之重，并要求我们在面对潜在冲击时，对脆弱性保持高度警惕。

 

For the purposes of today’s discussion, let me highlight one core lesson that I think should be drawn from the crisis: do not take anything for granted. In essence, the IMF has made this a focus of our work since the crisis. We have constantly underlined the importance of building resilience. This has meant vigilance about vulnerabilities in the face of potential shocks.

 

在接下来的时间里，请允许我就风险抵御能力和警惕性有关的三个问题，谈谈我的一些看法：

So, allow me to take a few minutes to share with you some perspectives on three questions relevant to resilience and vigilance:

 

亚洲是否为应对意外冲击做好了准备？

 

How well is Asia prepared for unexpected shocks?

 

本地区近期的通胀形势意味着什么？

 

What are the implications of recent inflation trends in the region?

 

为什么亚洲需要深化普惠金融？

 

Why Asia needs to deepen financial inclusion?

 

政策储备

Policy buffers

 

我们首先谈谈政策储备，这是对第一个问题的回应。

 

Let’s start by discussing policy buffers, which is the response to the first question.

 

大家普遍认为，全球和亚洲经济的短期前景依然强劲。很多人都了解我们的最新预测，今明两年全球经济预计都将增长3.9%。

 

There is a broad consensus that the short-term outlook for both the global economy and Asia remains strong. Most of you are familiar with our recent forecasts, which see 3.9 percent global growth this year and next.

 

不过，也有人认为，我们将持续面临风险，最近几周来，不确定性笼罩着一些国家的金融市场。这再次引起了人们的关切，关注亚洲将如何应对市场波动加剧乃至新一轮全球经济下滑。当然，近年来随着中央银行谨慎地推进货币政策正常化，我们已经遇到过类似的情况。

 

But there is also an understanding that we continue to face risks – witness the uncertainty that hovered over some financial markets in recent weeks. This has once again raised the concerns about how Asia will respond to increased market volatility or even the next global downturn. Of course, we have seen other moments like this in recent years as central banks have carefully moved down the path of monetary policy normalization.

 

为使亚洲能够妥善应对这种不确定性，国际货币基金组织给大家的建议十分明确：政策制定者们应重建和加强货币和财政政策储备。比如，在应对资本流突然逆转的时候，我们认为这种政策思路至关重要。

 

The Fund has had a clear message to Asia to deal with the uncertainties: we have consistently called on policymakers to rebuild monetary and fiscal buffers. We see this policy approach as essential for avoiding a sudden reversal of capital flows, for example.

 

亚洲国家已经建立了某些防御措施，特别是更多地依靠灵活的汇率制度，增强了亚洲国家的抗风险能力。总的来说，亚洲地区已能更好地抵御冲击。

 

Asian countries have certain defenses in place that heighten resilience, especially the increased reliance on flexible exchange rates. And overall, the region is better placed to resist shocks.

 

尽管如此，其他一些政策储备却有所减弱。我会举几个例子来说明一下。我先从那些让人担忧程度较轻的趋势说起，再谈谈那些可能需要更多关注的问题。

 

Nonetheless, some buffers have weakened. Let me now offer a few examples, starting with the less worrisome trends and moving toward those that might be of greater concern.

 

首先，我们用来评估外汇储备充足程度的指标显示，亚洲地区的外汇储备充足率比全球金融危机刚发生之前的水平要低，尽管仍远高于亚洲金融危机之前的水平。 当然，储备充足率目前仍处于充足范围的较高水平，而且高于世界其他大部分地区。

 

First, our metric for assessing reserve adequacy shows that Asia’s reserve cover is down from immediately before the global crisis, but much higher than before the Asian crisis. Nonetheless, reserve adequacy remains at the upper end of the adequacy range and higher than in most regions.

 

其次，本地区各经济体的平均经常账户盈余已略低于2007年水平，一小部分国家则更令人担忧。

 

Second, the average current account balance is a little lower than in 2007. But there have been worries about specific countries.

 

第三，亚洲地区的外债自2007年以来大幅增长。其实，在更早的亚洲金融危机之后，亚洲地区的外债就已经大幅增加了。

 

Third, external debt in Asia has substantially risen since 2007. And even before that, there was a significant increase in external debt after the Asian crisis.

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第四，公共债务占GDP的比例从2007年的46%上升到目前的59%。财政收支状况也更加严峻。目前各国的平均财政赤字水平已达到GDP的1.1%，而早些时候各国财政还有盈余。

 

Fourth, public debt has risen to 59 percent of GDP from 46 percent in 2007. Fiscal balances also have worsened, with an average deficit today of 1.1% of GDP. They were in surplus in the earlier periods.

 

最后，企业与家庭的债务上升。这可能是全球金融危机以来最引人关注的变化。

 

Finally, perhaps the most striking change since the global crisis has been the increase in corporate and household indebtedness.

 

许多人都知道，国际货币基金组织向全球各成员国发出的信息一直是要“未雨绸缪”。对于亚洲而言，这意味着政策制定者们应该加强财政和货币政策储备，并在必要时采取宏观审慎措施，以提升抗风险能力。

 

Many of you know that our message to our global membership has been to “fix the roof while the sun shines.” For Asia, this means that policy makers should focus on increasing resilience by strengthening fiscal and monetary buffers, and employing macroprudential measures where necessary.

 

基本判断十分清楚：建立强有力的风险防御，亚洲还有工作尚待完成。

 

The bottom line is clear: there is still work to be done for Asia to have strong defenses.

 

亚洲的通胀

Inflation in Asia

 

在此，我想谈谈加强政策储备的一个关键问题，这就是要对通胀持续保持警惕。今天在座的各位央行人士都很清楚，尽管近年来通胀低迷但没理由放松警惕。一些 特殊的因素正在发挥作用，需要我们给予额外的特别关注。

 

Here, I would like to touch upon a key element of a policy to strengthen buffers. This is constant vigilance about inflation. As the central bankers in the room today know only too well, the subdued price increases we have seen in recent years offer no reason to relax. There are unique forces at work that require extra attention.

 

让我们仔细看看最近的情况。

 

So let’s take a closer look at recent developments.

 

我们在最新一期《亚太地区经济展望》中分析了通胀趋势。我们看到，2012年至2015年之间，很多国家的物价水平急剧下跌。在这一时期，各种通胀指标都显示各类产品、服务的通胀水平出现普遍下降。截至2017年，通胀预测都保持不变或有所下调。

 

Our current Regional Economic Outlook for the Asia-Pacific analyzed the inflation trends. We saw sharp price declines between 2012 and 2015, when disinflation was broad-based by various inflation measures. Inflation forecasts through 2017 stayed constant or were revised down.

 

但现在我们看到，澳大利亚、日本、韩国和部分东盟五国经济体的整体通胀率都在上升。这与其他发达经济体和新兴市场的情况一致，部分反映了近期大宗商品价格的上涨。

 

But we now see headline inflation picking up in Australia, Japan, Korea, and some ASEAN-5 economies. That is in line with other advanced economies and emerging markets, reflecting, in part, the recent rise of commodity prices.

 

我们的研究有三个主要结论：

 

Our research has produced three main findings:

 

一是低通胀主要源于临时性因素，包括输入性通胀。我们的测算显示，亚洲发达国家的通胀低于目标水平，有一半是由包括大宗商品在内的进口价格走低造成的；而在亚洲新兴国家，大部分则是由上述原因造成的。

 

First, low inflation has been driven mainly by temporary forces, including imported inflation. Our estimates indicate that weaker import prices, including commodities, contributed to half of the undershooting of inflation targets in advanced Asia, and most of the undershooting in emerging Asia.

 

二是通胀变化更多受到了前期因素的影响。各国的通胀预期普遍十分稳定，这在亚洲发达国家和采用通胀目标制的经济体尤其如此。不过,近年来通胀预期的重要性有所下降，而前期的通胀状况起到了更大的作用。

 

Second, the inflation process has become more backward-looking. Expectations are generally well anchored, especially in advanced Asia and economies with inflation-targeting frameworks. Still, the importance of expectations has declined in recent years, with past inflation playing a larger role.

 

三是通胀水平对劳动力市场缺口变动的敏感度下降。我们在亚洲之外的其他新兴市场国家也发现了类似的现象。菲利普斯曲线似乎已变得平坦化，这与各国融入全球价值链和制造自动化水平上升有关。这些因素削弱了劳动者的谈判能力。

 

Third, the sensitivity of inflation to slack in labor markets has declined. This is something we have also seen in other emerging market countries outside of Asia. There seems to be a flattening of the Phillips Curve linked to integration in global value chains and automation. These factors weaken labor’s bargaining power.

 

展望未来，我们的研究结果显示：随着大宗商品价格上涨以及发达经济体货币政策正常化下低通胀的逆转，亚洲的通胀率可能会上升。而本地区汇率走弱，也可能成为另一个推动因素。与此同时，技术变革会对价格产生何种长期影响，目前还看不清楚。

 

Looking ahead, our findings suggest that inflation may rise in Asia as commodity prices rise and low inflation in advanced economies reverses as monetary policy is normalized. Weaker regional currencies could also become a factor. On the other hand, it is not clear what the long-term impact of technological change will be on prices.

 

因此，央行应该对输入型通胀保持警惕，而灵活的汇率制度可以提供有用的防护墙。改善货币政策框架和加强央行政策沟通十分重要，这能让预期在驱动通胀中发挥出更大的作用，并将这些预期锚定在目标水平。

 

So, central banks should be vigilant about imported inflation, and exchange rate flexibility can help provide useful insulation. It will be important to strengthen monetary policy frameworks and improve central bank communications to increase the role of expectations in driving inflation – and keep those expectations anchored to targets.

 

普惠金融

Financial Inclusion

 

通常认为，低通胀对低收入家庭是有利的。不过在评估亚洲经济的前景时，还有另一个问题与低收入人群息息相关。这就是普惠金融，也是我今天想谈的最后一个问题。

 

Low inflation is generally thought to be good for low-income households. But there is another issue relevant to the poor that is relevant in assessing Asia economic prospects. That issue is financial inclusion – the final topic I would like to focus on today.

 

国际货币基金组织的研究表明，那些降低了收入不平等程度的经济体更有望实现经济的可持续增长。因此，有针对性地推出政策措施，推动普惠金融发展，对减少贫困至关重要。

 

IMF research has shown that economies that reduce income inequality are positioned to achieve sustained levels of growth. So, targeted policy action to promote financial inclusion is essential to poverty reduction.

 

普惠金融也能提高宏观经济政策的有效性。一些研究表明，普惠金融能够改善利率传导机制，从而使货币政策这一工具更为有效。

 

Financial inclusion also enhances the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies. Several studies show that financial inclusion strengthens the interest rate channel, making monetary policy a more effective tool.

 

在让更多人获得金融服务和提高各类人群可用获取的金融产品质量方面，亚太地区各国已经取得长足的进步。

 

Asia-Pacific countries have made considerable progress widening access to financial services and improving the quality of financial products available across populations.

 

在普惠金融方面，亚洲新兴市场经济体与其他地区的进展是一致的。相比之下，亚洲低收入发展中国家有更多人能获得金融服务。

 

Financial inclusion in Asia’s emerging markets is in line with other regions. But Asia’s low-income and developing countries actually show wider accessibility.

 

尽管如此，各国国内的差距，包括贫富差距、城乡差距和两性差距，仍然很大。

 

Nonetheless, the gaps are significant within countries – between rich and poor, urban and rural, men and women.

 

例如，在印度最贫困的五分之一成年男性中，仅有约46%的人拥有正规的银行账户，而在最富有的五分之一成年男性中，该比例为79%。当使用移动交易或金融机构贷款等其他指标来衡量时，这种差异更为明显，两类人群的差距分别为相差四倍和相差约三倍。

 

For example, in India, only about 46 percent of male adults from the poorest quintile of the population have a formal account. That compares with 79 percent in the richest quintile. This disparity is even more pronounced when measured by use of mobile transactions (a fourfold difference), or borrowing from a financial institution (about a threefold difference).

 

性别差异依然很大，这在南亚地区尤其如此。在那里，只有不到40%的女性拥有银行账户，而男性的这一比率则接近60%。

 

Gender disparities also remain significant, especially in South Asia. There, less than 40 percent of women have a bank account compared with nearly 60 percent for men.

 

我们的研究还显示：与其他地区相比，亚洲各国的普惠金融程度更加参差不齐。一些亚洲国家处在普惠金融的前沿，而其他亚洲国家还只能提供基本的金融服务，其中最大的差异体现在自动提款机的使用和提供正规银行服务等方面。

 

Our research also shows a wider range of financial inclusion across Asian countries than within other regions. While some Asian countries are at the forefront of financial inclusion, others are only able to provide access to basic financial services. The largest disparity is in access to ATMs or formal banking services.

 

在许多国家，数字金融服务近年来都有所扩张，包括电子银行、手机银行和移动钱包等。我们看到在孟加拉国、印度尼西亚和蒙古，数字金融服务增长十分迅速。而在太平洋岛国，地域分散是提供金融服务的主要障碍。在萨摩亚，移动产品已深受人们的欢迎，值得大家关注。

 

Digital financial services have expanded recently in many countries, including electronic banking, mobile banking, and mobile money. We have seen notable growth in Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Mongolia. In Pacific island countries, geographical dispersion represents a major obstacle to providing financial services. So it is notable that in Samoa, mobile products have proven popular.

 

有趣的是，在移动银行业务方面，大多数亚太国家落后于撒哈拉以南非洲地区。虽然亚洲在传统银行业基础设施方面处于领先地位，但其移动交易却远远落后于肯尼亚、乌干达、坦桑尼亚和津巴布韦。在这些国家，已有70%以上的民众使用手机银行服务。

 

Interestingly, mobile banking is one area where most Asia-Pacific countries lag sub-Saharan Africa. While Asia leads in traditional banking infrastructure, it is far behind Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe in mobile transactions. In those countries, more than 70 percent of the population uses mobile banking services.

 

显然，亚洲地区推动普惠金融发展的潜力十分巨大。各国可采取以下措施来应对这一问题：

 

Clearly, there is enormous potential to deepen financial inclusion in the Asia. There are several steps that countries can take to address the issue:

 

加强个人征信机构、资产登记机构、支付系统和小额信贷机构等基础设施建设，这将降低金融服务的成本。

 

First, strengthening such infrastructure as credit bureaus, asset registration, payment systems, and microfinance institutions would lower the costs of financial services.

 

第二，各国需要投入足够多的资源，使互联网和手机的连接更加便利。

 

Second, countries need to allocate adequate resources to expand internet and mobile phone connectivity.

 

第三，   推动一些国家的电信和互联网行业开放，这将有助于降低成本并改善服务。

 

Third, in some countries, liberalization of the telecommunications and internet industries would help bring down cost and improve services.

 

结论

Conclusion

 

总而言之，亚洲需要共同努力，建立能够应对意外冲击的政策储备。它需要强大的货币政策框架，加强央行政策沟通力度，以应对和适应不确定的全球环境。最后，亚洲必须了解推广普惠金融所面临的障碍以及技术变革如何能促成普惠金融深化。

 

In conclusion, Asia needs a concerted effort to build policy buffers that can weather unexpected storms. It needs strong monetary policy frameworks and central bank communications efforts to respond and adjust to an uncertain global environment. Finally, there must be an understanding of the obstacles to wider financial inclusion, and the ways that technological change can help make this inclusion possible.

 

这些问题是相互关联的：实行解决这些问题的政策将帮助亚太地区变得更加安全，使亚太地区在过去卓越经济成就的成功历史基础之上再接再厉。 然而，我们不能想当然地认为，不付出新的努力，成功会自动从天而降。

 

These issues are inter-linked: the policies that address them can help make the Asia-Pacific region more secure as it builds upon an extraordinary legacy of economic success. But we simply cannot take that success for granted.

 

未来几年会出现很多挑战。有些挑战可以预见，有些肯定会出乎我们的预料。我们的目标必须是：用不懈的努力确保实现强有力、可持续和包容性增长，应对未来的挑战。谢谢！

 

These issues are inter-linked: the policies that address them can help make the Asia-Pacific region more secure as it builds upon an extraordinary legacy of economic success. But we simply cannot take that success for granted.

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