European Oil Majors: From Mars to Venus

欧洲石油巨头：从火星到金星

Royal Dutch Shell and Total flirt with the idea of becoming utilities

荷兰皇家壳牌和道达尔想要成为公用事业公司

In America Big Oil remembers BP’s attempt to go “Beyond Petroleum” in the 2000s as a toe-curling embarrassment. In Europe it is seen as being ahead of its time. Once again the oil industry is experimenting with cross-dressing. Statoil, a Norwegian oil firm, is abandoning a name given to it almost 50 years ago to become the wispier Equinor. The firm formerly known as Dong, for Danish Oil and Natural Gas, is now Ørsted, a big wind firm named after the founder of electromagnetism.

在美国石油巨头们的记忆中，英国石油公司（BP）在本世纪初那“不仅贡献石油”（Beyond Petroleum）的尝试是一次彻头彻尾的尴尬经历。欧洲人则认为这家公司超前了。现在，石油行业又一次尝试变装跨界。挪威国家石油公司把自己用了差不多半个世纪的名字Statoil换成了更纤柔的Equinor。丹麦石油和天然气公司（Dong，全称Danish Oil and Natural Gas）现在变身大型风能公司Ørsted，以电磁学创始人奥斯特的名字命名。

Royal Dutch Shell and Total, Europe’s biggest private producers, are (mercifully) not changing their names. But they are toying with a strategy that could be far more adventurous – moving their core businesses from hydrocarbons to electrons.

幸好，欧洲最大的私有石油公司荷兰皇家壳牌（Royal Dutch Shell）和道达尔（Total）还没有更名。但它们正在琢磨采用的策略冒险得多：它们要把核心业务从碳氢化合物转向电子。

Amid pressure to limit climate change, and the growth of renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs), they expect low-carbon electricity to become a much bigger part of the world’s energy mix within the next few decades. They have already invested heavily in building global natural-gas businesses for cleaner power generation. Now they plan to take on utilities in deregulated markets to provide electricity and gas direct to homes and businesses.

面对限制气候变化的压力以及可再生能源和电动汽车的发展，这两家公司预计，未来几十年低碳电力在世界能源结构中占据的比例将大幅提高。它们已经投入巨资设立全球天然气业务，以实现更清洁的发电。现在它们计划在放宽监管的市场上成为公用事业公司，直接为家庭和企业提供电力和天然气。

In Feburary Shell completed the acquisition of First Utility, a midsized British gas and electricity supplier that already operates under the Shell brand in Germany. The Anglo-Dutch firm plans to make a similar move in Australia. Late last year Total launched the supply of gas and green power to households in France, through its Total Spring brand. Both have invested in renewable energy and are installing EV charging points in their networks of petrol stations. “We don’t see how we can be an energy major if we don’t become a significant player in electricity,” says Maarten Wetselaar, head of gas and new energies at Shell. A Total executive says: “Why should we limit ourselves to selling gas to a utility when we can sell to end-customers?”

壳牌在2月完成了对第一电力（First Utility）的收购。第一电力是一家中等规模的英国天然气和电力供应商，已经以“壳牌”的品牌在德国运营。英荷合资的壳牌还计划在澳大利亚开展类似的行动。去年年底，道达尔开始在法国通过其Total Spring品牌向家庭供应天然气和清洁电力。两家公司都已投资可再生能源，并在各自的加油站网点安装电动汽车充电桩。壳牌公司天然气和新能源部门的负责人魏思乐（Maarten Wetselaar）说：“如果不成为供电的重要参与者，我们又怎么能算能源巨头呢？”道达尔的一位高管说：“既然我们能把天然气卖给终端用户，为什么要限制自己只卖给公用事业公司？”

At first glance the shift could be considered a shrinking of horizons. These firms are global beasts with vast balance-sheets. Customer-facing utilities are minnows by comparison. Centrica, the biggest of Britain’s Big Six, is worth £7.6bn ($10.8bn), compared with Shell’s market value of £190bn. They often operate in only one or two markets, each a regulatory minefield. Bill-paying customers tend to loathe them far more than they do the purveyors of petrol and pain aux raisins.

乍一看，这种转变把格局缩小了。这些公司是拥有庞大资产负债表的全球巨兽。相比之下，面向用户的公用事业公司只是小鱼小虾。英国六大公用事业公司中规模最大的Centrica价值76亿英镑（108亿美元），而壳牌市值为1900亿英镑。它们通常只在一两个国家的市场上运作，每个市场都有监管雷区。向它们支付账单的用户对它们的厌恶往往比对石油和葡萄面包供应商强烈得多。

 

Power-generating utilities have also performed poorly in recent years compared with their oil and gas counterparts. They piled on debts before the 2007-08 financial crisis and were then hit by the rise of wind and solar, which drove down wholesale electricity prices. Peter Atherton, of Cornwall Insight, a consultancy, says that whereas supermajors aim for returns on capital on big oil and gas developments of 15%, renewables provide returns of 7-9%. In Britain, the energy retailers aim for profit margins of 4-5%.

而且，与石油和天然气供应商相比，电力公司近年业绩不佳。它们在2007年至2008年的金融危机之前就堆积了大量债务，之后又因风能和太阳能的崛起导致批发电价下降而备受冲击。咨询公司Cornwall Insight的彼得·阿瑟顿（Peter Atherton）表示，石油巨头的目标是在大型油气开发项目上获得15%的资本回报率，而可再生能源的回报率只有7%至9%。在英国，能源零售商的利润率目标是4%到5%。

Yet Jake Leslie Melville of BCG, a consultancy, says the oil companies are right to “test the waters” in electricity. For instance, Shell’s acquisition of First Utility, reportedly for $200m, may be deemed expensive considering the latter’s 850,000 household customers. But as a way of exploring whether Shell’s prowess in natural-gas supply and energy trading can be extended to providing services to millions of customers, some of whom will increasingly generate their own electricity, it may be a small price to pay – especially for a company that invests at least $25bn a year.

但波士顿咨询公司（BCG）的杰克·莱斯利·梅尔维尔（Jake Leslie Melville）认为，石油公司“试水”电力行业是对的。例如，据报道壳牌收购第一电力花费了两亿美元，考虑到后者仅有85万家庭用户，有人可能觉得买贵了。但作为一种探索方式，看看壳牌在天然气供应和能源交易方面的超凡实力能否扩展到为数以百万计的用户提供服务——其中一些用户还会越来越多地自行发电，这可能只是笔小投入，尤其是对一家每年至少投资250亿美元的公司来说。

Moreover, small beginnings may mask big ambitions. Mr Wetselaar says his aim is to generate electricity returns of 8-12%, which he thinks is feasible because Shell, with its energy-trading experience, can profit from the heightened volatility of power markets in the era of renewables and EVs, as well as from more flexible demand from consumers. To become material to Shell, the electricity business would need to grow to $50bn-100bn, on a par with the size of its current gas business, he says. Scott Flavell of Sia Partners, a consultancy, mulls whether, having acquired BG, an upstream producer once owned by British Gas, Shell might covet Centrica, owner of the downstream part of British Gas.

此外，小开端中可能掩藏着大野心。魏思乐表示自己的目标是在发电上获得8%到12%的回报，他认为这切实可行，因为在可再生能源和电动汽车的时代，拥有能源交易经验的壳牌将能从电力市场的剧烈波动中获利，也能从消费者更灵活的需求中获利。他表示，电力业务若要真正成为壳牌的重要部门，需要增长到500亿至1000亿美元，与目前的天然气业务规模相当。咨询公司Sia Partners的斯科特·弗拉维尔（Scott Flavell）思忖，壳牌既然已经收购了曾属于英国天然气公司（British Gas）的上游生产商BG集团，那么它是否还觊觎负责英国天然气公司下游业务的Centrica。

There are reasons for caution. Julian Critchlow of Bain, a consultancy, compares the risks facing the oil industry with those of Eastman Kodak when its business was ruined by digital photography and photo-sharing. It is clear that increased electrification is bound eventually to cause upheaval. “The challenge, as with Kodak, is whether you can spot where the returns will be.” Another risk is that technology firms may move into the domestic electricity market, making use of smart meters and digital devices, which would provide more alternatives to traditional energy suppliers. Yet if other oil and gas producers are not following in Shell and Total’s tentative footsteps, they probably should be. It is time to plug in.

有理由谨慎行事。咨询公司贝恩（Bain）的朱利安·克里奇洛（Julian Critchlow）将石油行业面临的风险与柯达的境遇相提并论——柯达的生意被数码摄影和照片共享毁灭了。很明显，电气化的扩展最终会引发剧变。“和柯达一样，挑战在于你能否找到回报所在。”另一个风险是科技公司可能会利用智能电表和数字设备进入国内电力市场，这将为传统能源供应商提供更多选择。不过，如果其他油气生产商还没有追随壳牌和道达尔探索的脚步，它们可能也该启动了。是时候插上电源了。

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