American Monetary Policy: Check Yourself

美国的货币政策：自己核查好

 

The Federal Reserve should respond to lower inflation by holding interest rates steady

在通胀水平较低的情况下，美联储应保持利率稳定

 

No statement from the Federal Reserve is complete without a promise to make decisions based on the data. In each of the past two years, a souring outlook for the world economy prompted the Fed to delay interest-rate rises. And quite right, too. Yet if the Fed raises rates on June 14th in the face of low inflation, as it has strongly hinted, it would bring into question its commitment both to the data and also to its 2% inflation target.

 

美联储的所有声明都会加上一个承诺：会依据数据做决定。过去两年里，前景黯淡的世界经济每年都促使美联储延迟了加息。这么做也确实恰当。然而，假如6月14日美联储不顾当前的低通胀，如之前强烈暗示的那样决定加息，那么它关于数据以及2%的通胀目标的承诺就都难以使人信服了。

 

The central bank has raised rates three times since December 2015 (the latest rise came in March). It is good that monetary policy is a little tighter than it was back then. The unemployment rate, at 4.3%, is lower than at any time since early 2001. A broad range of earnings data show a modest pickup in wage growth. The Fed is right to think that it is better to slow the economy gradually than be forced to bring it to a screeching halt later, if wage and price rises get out of hand. The rate increases to date have been reasonable insurance against an inflationary surge.

 

自2015年12月以来，美联储已加息三次（最近的一次是在今年3月）。货币政策比那时要稍微收紧一些，这是好事。4.3%的失业率为2001年年初以来的最低水平。一系列薪资数据显示，工资增长状况略有改善。美联储认为，逐步让经济放缓，总比日后工资和价格上涨水平失控、只能猛踩刹车要好。这么想是对的。此前的几次加息便是防范通胀水平激增的合理保障措施。

 

But no such surge has yet struck. Unexpectedly low inflation in both March and April has left consumer prices no higher than they were in January. According to the Fed’s preferred index, core inflation – that is, excluding volatile food and energy prices – has fallen to 1.5%, down from 1.8% earlier this year. It is now well below the 2% target.

 

不过这种激增的状况尚未发生。3月和4月的通胀水平都出人意料地低，消费者价格也并未高过1月的水平。根据美联储较偏爱的一个指标，核心通胀率（一个剔除多变的食品及能源价格的指数）已从今年早些时候的1.8%降至1.5%。眼下，核心通胀的水平远低于2%的目标。

 

Nor does a surge seem imminent. For a while, Donald Trump’s promises to cut taxes and spend freely on infrastructure made higher rates appear all the wiser. But fiscal stimulus looks less likely. Tax cuts are stuck in the legislative queue behind health-care reform, and Mr Trump’s administration has tied itself in knots over whether it will increase the deficit. Meanwhile, the current “infrastructure week” in Washington may generate more headlines than proper plans.

 

通胀水平激增的状况似乎也并非近在眼前。特朗普减税及大笔投资基建的承诺一度令提高利率显得格外明智。不过不太可能推出财政刺激政策。减税计划继医保改革之后也卡在了立法这一关，而且特朗普政府本身也在是否增加赤字这一点上莫衷一是。与此同时，华盛顿推进的“基建周”爆出的头条新闻可能不少，但是很难推出像样的计划。

 

Even so, the Fed is expected to go ahead and raise rates this month. The markets think there is a 90% probability of an increase of 25 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point).

 

即便如此，预计美联储还是会采取行动，于本月上调利率。市场认为加息25个基点（一个基点等于0.01%）的概率达90%。

 

It is possible that more inflation is coming. An economy that is stimulated will eventually overheat. The central bank may believe that low unemployment is about to cause inflation. But the truth is that nobody is sure how far unemployment can fall before prices and wages soar. Not many years ago some rate-setters put this “natural” rate of unemployment at over 6%; the median rate-setter’s estimate is now 4.7%.

 

通胀水平会提升，这是有可能的。经济经过刺激后，终将出现过热的情况。美联储可能相信，处于低位的失业率将会引发通胀。然而事实是，在价格和工资猛增之前，没人能说得准失业率会降到什么程度。就在几年前，一些利率制定者得出的“自然”失业率还超过6%，而现在利率制定者估算的中位数是4.7%。

 

The only way to find the labour market’s limits is to feel them out. Falling inflation and middling wage growth both suggest that these limits are some way off, for two possible reasons. First, higher wage growth could yet tempt more of the jobless to seek work (those who are not actively job-hunting do not count as unemployed). The proportion of 25- to 54-year-olds in employment is lower than before the recession, by an amount representing almost 2.4m people. By this measure, which fell in May, joblessness is worse in America than in France, where the overall unemployment rate stands at 9.5%. Second, even the moderate pickup in wage growth to date might encourage firms to invest more, lifting productivity out of the doldrums and dampening inflationary pressure.

 

要找出劳动力市场的极限，只能去摸索。通胀水平下降以及不温不火的工资增长均显示，劳动力市场要达到极限还有很长的光景。有两个可能的原因，首先，更高的工资增长可能会吸引更多的失业人员去找工作（不积极求职的人不算失业者）。25岁到54岁的人就业的比例比经济衰退之前要低，总数少了约240万人。以此为衡量标准（5月有所下降），美国的失业状况比法国要严重，后者的整体失业率为9.5%。第二，即便目前为止工资增长仅略微有所好转，仍有可能促使企业增加投资，从而提高生产率并抑制通胀压力。

 

I like hike

我喜欢大幅上升

 

Jobs growth in America has already slowed from a monthly average of 187,000 in 2016 to 121,000 in the past three months. That is enough to reduce slack in the economy, but only just. Slowing it still further is needless so long as inflation remains quiescent. It makes still less sense when you consider the asymmetry of risks before the Fed. If tighter money tips the economy into recession, the central bank has only a little bit of room to cut rates before it hits zero. But if inflation rises, it can raise them as much as it likes.

 

美国的就业增长放缓，每月平均新增工作岗位从2016年的18.7万个降至过去三个月的12.1万个。这对降低经济中的闲置劳动力来说已足够，但也仅此而已。只要通胀水平保持不变，就没必要进一步放缓就业增长。考虑到美联储面临的不对称风险，这么做就更不合理了。如果货币紧缩引发经济衰退，在将利率降至0之前，美联储只有一点点降息的空间。相反，如果通胀上升，它就可以想加息多少就加多少。

 

This asymmetry of risks extends to the Fed’s credibility. Inflation has been below 2% for 59 of the 63 months since the target was announced in January 2012. Continuing to undershoot the goal would cast more doubt on the central bank’s commitment to it than modest overshoots would.

 

这种不对称风险还会影响到美联储的可信度。自2012年1月公布2%的通胀目标以来，63个月中有59个月的通胀水平都低于这一目标。相比（因为保持利率不变）而导致通胀利率略超这一目标，（加息从而导致）继续低于这一目标会令美联储的承诺引发更多质疑。

 

For too long, hawks have made excuses for the persistence of low inflation. The latest is to blame new contracts offering unlimited amounts of mobile data, as if cheaper telecommunications somehow should not count. The Fed should keep its promise to base its decisions on the data, and leave interest rates exactly where they are.

 

很长时间里，鹰派都在为持续存在的低水平通胀找借口。最近的一次则是将问题归咎于提供不限流量的移动数据的新合约，好像更便宜的通讯就不甚重要似的。美联储应恪守根据数据做决定的承诺，并令利率维持在现有水平。

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